Labour Leadership 2016

Only if you want to take into consideration facts like age.

Consideration?
that's a big fucking word. Are you some kind of expert?

Yep you are right there... and I don't understand this fascination with leaving the EU as most Labour voters didn't want to leave the EU.

If Labour would say "We only leave it it doesn't make things worse for workers/people affected by the EU in a negative manner/people getting EU community funding (so many charities in NI need it)"

But they seem to really go for the people that want to leave the EU cos globalisation, but those steel and coal mines aren't coming back.

Don't get me wrong the EU is mostly a trade block and it needs to do a lot more to re-dive wealth within it. And its refugee position atm is very doubtful.

But Labour isn't in power ATM so they risk making things even worse.

"We only leave it it doesn't make things worse for workers/people affected by the EU in a negative manner/people getting EU community funding (so many charities in NI need it)"

I spoke with my MP recently, and this was pretty much what she said - although that's coming from a constituency that voted to remain. That seemed to be a pretty individual plan though, I have literally no idea what the Labour Party itself plans or wants.

Given that:

He voted in favour of leaving the European Economic Community in 1975.

He voted against the Maastricht Treaty that created the EU. Here's what he had to say about that — "It takes us in the opposite direction of an unelected legislative body—the Commission—and, in the case of foreign policy, a policy Commission that will be, in effect, imposing foreign policy on nation states that have fought for their own democratic accountability."

He voted against the Lisbon Treaty which is the current constitutional basis for the EU.

In an article on his website (mysteriously later deleted), he wrote that the EU was responsible for the gross abuse of human rights in Western Sahara.

In another later deleted article, he wrote: "The project has always been to create a huge free-market Europe, with ever-limiting powers for national parliaments and an increasingly powerful common foreign and security policy."

Why would I not be serious? Do adults ignore facts like these?

Has he ever clarified his position in a way which both engages with and builds on these points? Maybe while making his position on leaving (I.e., remaining) the EU explicit?

This may help: http://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/

Don't get me wrong the EU is mostly a trade block and it needs to do a lot more to re-dive wealth within it. And its refugee position atm is very doubtful.

Don't disagree, but I'd still argue that in balance (especially given the current political climate) we're so better off in it should never have been a question.

Corbyn was refusing to rule out campaigning for Britain to leave as late as July 2015. It should never have been a question, at all, and his apparent damascene conversion should be placed in the context of the amount of time he has been a politician versus the amount of time he has apparently had a change of heart on the matter.

Corbyn was refusing to rule out campaigning for Britain to leave as late as July 2015. It should never have been a question, at all, and his apparent damascene conversion should be placed in the context of the amount of time he has been a politician versus the amount of time he has apparently had a change of heart on the matter.

Soooo. It isn't his principled opinion that the UK should leave the EU?

I'm nailing jelly to the wall tonight.

Ha

most Labour voters didn't want to leave the EU.

Are there reliable numbers on this? Would be genuinely interested to see them.

(3) Corbyn has a lot of support amongst the liberal elite of tomorrow (intelligent young people).

As they get older, they'll realise how useless he is.

There were some by-elections yesterday

While Labout held their one seat, and two others were unchanged, it's interesting to see that the three of the Conservative seats shifted strongly to the Lib Dems at the expense of both the Conservatives (mostly) and Labour (less so). The other Conservative seat went to Independents.

While it's only council stuff it is nonetheless perhaps a fair indicator of grass-roots feelings which are where you might hope Corbyn's style of politics to show that it is changing opinions. But evidently it's not.

Ashcroft poll is the one I know about, perhaps there are more :)

(cos only 1 dataset etc. etc.)

it's interesting to see that the three of the Conservative seats shifted strongly to the Lib Dems at the expense of both the Conservatives

It's the South West though, which was always the Lib Dem stronghold before the wipe-out at the last election.

Good to see there was a free-for-all in Powys. Keeping the mid-Wales 70's hippy dream alive. #tipivalley

While it's only council stuff it is nonetheless perhaps a fair indicator of grass-roots feelings which are where you might hope Corbyn's style of politics to show that it is changing opinions.

I recall from somewhere that Lib dems have always been strong at council level. Given this strength (people already think they're good there) I can see them outperforming Labour easily, just on the basis of Brexit alone. I think Labour are screwed here as well.

Yep.

Lib Dems always perform better at local elections when there isn't also a general election.

Nothing to see here.

No, I don't think I quite meant that.
I meant that any gains Labour might have hoped to make to prove their messages are working at grassroots, they simply won't make as the Lib Dems will take them.
I think there might be a little something to see - something not good for Labour - but I'll admit to being fairly ignorant about local level elections.

I'd say it's a little more nuanced.

The Lib Dems gained a fair bit at the expense of Conservative and Labour.

Chudleigh (Teignbridge):
LDEM: 51.5% (+38.8)
CON: 35.6% (+2.8)
UKIP: 6.7% (+6.7)
LAB: 6.1% (-8.8)
Ind(s) and Grn didn't stand this time.

Bovey (Teignbridge) result:
LDEM: 43.9% (+20.3)
CON: 33.1% (-4.2)
IND: 8.9% (-1.5)
LAB: 5.4% (-7.4)
UKIP: 5.1% (+5.1)
IND: 3.6% (+3.6)

Blackdown (Taunton Deane) result:
LDEM: 71.2% (+49.9)
CON: 22.5% (-30.4)
IND: 6.3% (+6.3)
Other Ind and Grn didn't stand this time round.

And for the others (i.e. non Lib Dem)

Moreton Hall (St Edmundsbury) result:
IND: 56.0% (+22.4)
CON: 21.7% (-22.1)
LDEM: 10.4% (+10.4)
LAB: 7.2% (-15.4)
UKIP: 4.8% (+4.8)

Leven, Kennoway & Largo (Fife) result:
SNP: 37.0% (-4.1)
LAB: 28.4% (-6.9)
CON: 18.5% (+11.7)
LDEM: 14.3% (+4.3)
GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)

Welshpool Llanerchyddol (Powys) result:
IND: 48.9% (+48.9)
LDEM: 32.1% (-17.7)
CON: 19.1% (+19.1)

Then Labour strengthened their position in this one

Higher Croft (Blackburn) result:
LAB: 58.2% (+12.1)
UKIP: 25.0% (-8.3)
CON: 16.7% (-3.8)

But, as I said, it's only local level.

You should also add the turnout. It's (almost) always extremely low in Council by-elections, which is one of the reasons why (I think) they're generally accorded little significance. I think Council by-elections only really come to life when there's a big local issue.