EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

http://moneyweek.com/dont-trigger-article-50-just-leave/

I read this with great interest today

Again the naive, 'the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU' at the end.

She may not be writing from an unbiased perspective, given the blurb to her new book:

A book about BREXIT This is a book to wake up citizens of Europe who thought that the European Union would look after their interests and well-being. This is what the EU set out to do but somewhere along the line the EU has been hijacked by selfish bureaucrats who only look after their own pockets and develop the EU into a huge undemocratic machinery where Europeans have no say. It is the EU that through ill-conceived (and fairly secret!) 'Neighbourhood' and 'Global' Migration Schemes CAUSED the migration crisis in 2015-2016. The EU kept the Open Borders wide open and did little to alleviate the human misery that ensued, both for the migrants and for the European citizens. The defects of the EU are now so ingrained that reforms are no longer possible: the system just does not work. Europeans do not want a 'Super-State' that displaces European Christian culture and European traditions. The EU must be dismantled and replaced by an inter-governmental Single Market that respects the sovereignty of the Member States and the interests of their citizens. The citizens of UK will be fortunate if they are allowed to leave the oppressive EU by voting for BREXIT on 23rd June. If they do not leave there will be little left of UK sovereign power to decide anything for themselves, including matters of defence and taxes.

The conclusion seems to be:

Since law, medicine and even politics are all based on common sense it would seem to me that the main and urgent issue is to disentangle ourselves as soon as possible from the rules and regulations of the EU. Why would we want to engage and discuss “trade deals”. What trade deals? The EU has taken years and years to negotiate a string of trade deals that are not even that advantageous to the UK. Surely the UK could just start its own trading under other arrangements? As an expert on treaty law, I fail to understand why you need any “trade agreements” to trade? I agree with businessmen like Tim Martin of Wetherspoon and Lord Bamford of Bamford JCB that to trade you just trade.

The idea that we can just leave is obviously true. But her conclusion, from an economic and IR perspective, is obviously nuts. She even notes earlier in the article that:

this could descend into a tariff war

Although she also claims that

it is likely that we would end up with this situation at the end of two years anyway.

But the potential backlash from our closest neighbours is the reason we wouldn't want to do this. A unilateral exit is a bad idea.

She hasn't chanced upon some secret (although she attempts to insinuate she has - there's lots of quasi-conspiracy theory language being used). International law is built upon norms. There is no body which can force a state for failing to meet the obligations of a treaty. But other states can certainly punish a state for not doing so.

Her wiki page is also nuts.

"common sense" klaxon.

"European Christian culture"

Lately very much shorthand for misogyny and xenophobia.

Three doctorates tho. THREE.

But the potential backlash from our closest neighbours is the reason we wouldn't want to do this. A unilateral exit is a bad idea.

She doesn't care because she thinks they are not the future.

The EU needs the UK far more than the UK needs the EU and we have nothing to gain from “discussions” or further “agreements” – unless such agreements are with non-EU states such as the United States, India, Brazil and China. There is the future.

Basically: Germany, France: Come At Me Bro.

It is the EU that through ill-conceived (and fairly secret!) 'Neighbourhood' and 'Global' Migration Schemes CAUSED the migration crisis in 2015-2016

Yeah, not those pesky wars or bombs.

I'm glad people who obviously have a much better understanding of this Brexit debacle than I do were able to demonstrate very quickly and articulately that her article was wholly misleading and greatly self-serving. I started reading it, but must admit, got a bit bored, so gave up. I feel the article @greenhell cited a number of pages back sums-up my feelings on, and understanding of, the matter pretty well.

Which is dumb.

Somewhat related: I went down a rabbit hole. Her family is nuts. In the early 90s her husband and she began calling themselves Prince and Princess. As you do. Then they adopted the name de Frankopan (Croatian royalty) via British civil law in 2000. Apparently there is no evidence that they are actually related to said family, and no "official" body recognizes it.

Her daughter married Nicholas Windsor though. So that's something I guess.

I thought we had been told to ignore 'experts'?

from the internet:

Farage is like a fascist Microsoft paperclip "it looks like you're trying to spread hate. I can help"

Sounds like their heads are full of marzipan.

Apparently she's surprised that people aren't listening to her.

Despite my best attempts, says professor of international law Ingrid Detter de Frankopan, everyone has been deaf to the painstakingly simple course for the United Kingdom to take: don’t trigger Article 50 at all.

Which is dumb.

It would make good telly tho

Fuck you guys, we're leavin! But we've got a lot of Nissan Quashqais. And some finance. Want some?

Quashqais for every real British citizen!

And some finance.

"Oops - the finance isn't coming with us! Nevermind, we've got Jam instead!"

edit: I forgot we also have Perry!

From the comments:

Typo Para 4: referendum was June 2016, not 2015.

> don’t trigger Article 50 at all

I'm with her on this bit at least.

So, the Autumn Statement ...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/nov/23/autumn-statement-2016-philip-hammond-brexit-growth-deficit-housing-jams-universal-credit-minimum-wage-live

Borrowing will be £122bn bigger than planned
Growth to fall to 1.4% in 2017
Government abandons 2020 surplus goal

#blamebrexit

Brexit is no doubt to blame for the Universal Credit cuts...not the Tories being angry they were blocked on WT Credit cuts ;)

But have your own nasty party is better than the EU right? ;)

And this one:

UK national debt heading towards £2 trillion

Small beer, nothing that a spot of hyperinflation won't sort out.