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doubt this very much. 'Self'-driving precisely levels out one key advantage of rail travel today, that people can work while they're on the train.
As with taxis today, logistics will, I think, place strong cost demands that the autonomous motorcars don't venture too far off from their service hubs. Calling a automonous car to drive you from London to Birmingham will, I suggest, demand a significant surcharge to offset the demand and utilization differences between having cars ending up in Birmigham where they can't take passengers in London. There will also be issues, I think, with commuters as they tend to be in single directions-- morning, for example, into London and evening the other way-- thinking here of places like Luton, Crawley, Reading etc.
EdwardZ-
As with taxis today, logistics will, I think, place strong cost demands that the autonomous motorcars don't venture too far off from their service hubs.
Why is that an issue? To Uber it doesn't matter if self-driving car A is in Birmingham and car B in London or vice-versa, there's no differentiation between the vehicles. With taxis today the driver needs to go home at the end of his shift. There's no reason why a car has to (assuming it is owned by a company with a national presence).
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As with taxis today, logistics will, I think, place strong cost demands that the autonomous motorcars don't venture too far off from their service hubs. Calling a automonous car to drive you from London to Birmingham will, I suggest, demand a significant surcharge to offset the demand and utilization differences between having cars ending up in Birmigham where they can't take passengers in London.
I don't think it'll be sold that way around, but rather that 'you can grab a bargain if you take a car back to London'.
There will also be issues, I think, with commuters as they tend to be in single directions-- morning, for example, into London and evening the other way-- thinking here of places like Luton, Crawley, Reading etc.
Sure, excessively tidal flows already exist, of course. As I said, in London, public transport will persist, as it simply moves far more people. However, self-driving cars will play a greater part because they eliminate one of the biggest capacity constraints in car travel, when each driver accelerates slowly, with a gap after the previous driver. Self-driving cars can, at least in theory, move off as one big block, meaning you get far more through a junction in one go. That would certainly increase 'private' (probably car company-owned) motor traffic.
aggi
Oliver Schick
I doubt this very much. 'Self'-driving precisely levels out one key advantage of rail travel today, that people can work while they're on the train. While ownership of cars will probably move away from the individual, it's a fairly well-publicised fact that the car companies see the future of their business models in building cars, not selling those, and instead charging for trip hire. The aim is to undercut public transport and to effectively privatise it. This would obviously not be possible in the inner cities, but outside them it is a distinct possibility. Obviously, it's all speculation at this time, but I think this is a much more likely direction for it to go in.