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I doubt this very much. 'Self'-driving precisely levels out one key advantage of rail travel today, that people can work while they're on the train. While ownership of cars will probably move away from the individual, it's a fairly well-publicised fact that the car companies see the future of their business models in building cars, not selling those, and instead charging for trip hire. The aim is to undercut public transport and to effectively privatise it. This would obviously not be possible in the inner cities, but outside them it is a distinct possibility. Obviously, it's all speculation at this time, but I think this is a much more likely direction for it to go in.
Oliver Schick-
Outside the cities and commuter routes to/from them most train services are crap though. One train an hour (which may or may not turn up depending on whether the train company has bothered to get enough drivers for the day) which proceeds to stop at every tiny station between you and your destination. People will need no encouragement to move away from them.
I see express train routes between the cities and then self-driving cars picking up at the station and radiating outwards.
This isn't going to change until all drivers are off the road and motorways move on to supporting convoys of cars at 150mph+ which I can't see happening in the near future.
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doubt this very much. 'Self'-driving precisely levels out one key advantage of rail travel today, that people can work while they're on the train.
As with taxis today, logistics will, I think, place strong cost demands that the autonomous motorcars don't venture too far off from their service hubs. Calling a automonous car to drive you from London to Birmingham will, I suggest, demand a significant surcharge to offset the demand and utilization differences between having cars ending up in Birmigham where they can't take passengers in London. There will also be issues, I think, with commuters as they tend to be in single directions-- morning, for example, into London and evening the other way-- thinking here of places like Luton, Crawley, Reading etc.
aggi
EdwardZ
Person transport by rail and self-driving cars are hardly substitutions but rather complements. The wave of self-driving will, I think, hearald a new wave of rail as personal ownership of motorcars goes the way of the horse drawn buggy. Cars won't take one from London to Cambridge. Trains-- or self-driving buses-- will.
Lacking the demand for parking places will mean that few if any motorcars will be private but find usage patterns like taxis. More problematic, I think, will be transport of goods as rail will find it also difficult to complete with fleets of linked road trains (mega-trucks). Railways are currently not doing well with freight and I suspect the conflicts will increase.