Labour Leadership 2016

Pffft, the working classes don't win socialism through elections.

Interesting:

(source: http://election-data.co.uk/labour-leadership-exit-poll)

Smith won Scotland because, I suspect, many progressive voters have moved to the SNP.

Winning 18-24 year olds - not sure? His position on a second EU referendum?

Possibly. How many members of the party that age are actually Corbynites? Maybe if the NEC purge was successful then it might be mostly blairites? I think young ones still exist.

Just wondering out loud though, I'm genuinely surprised by that.

Ahh, that's an interesting thought/good point.

That group is already marginal (not many 18-24 year olds are members of political parties). That group is also more likely to be tweeting all up in people's grills. So the purge may have had a larger impact on that already small group.

Quick maths tell me it couldn't have had a huge effect, actually. It's reported there were 3000 purges. There were 500,000 votes, of which 11% were 18-24s, so roughly 55,000. Even if a majority of the purged voters were in that group it wouldn't have been hugely significant.

Here's another exit-poll breakdown (of party members only): https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/24/labour-members-exit-poll-corbyn-wins-all-except-yo/

Corbyn smashed it across the board.

It also notes that the Scots and 18-24 results are built from very small samples - 55 people in the former, 53 in the latter - and thus should be taken with a grain of salt.

Welcome to electoral oblivion.

Inorite?

Jez is proper shit at winning elections.

The Labour Party membership isn't remotely representative of the broader public.

Is any party membership remotely representative of the broader public?

Nope.

You don't need to be representative of the broader public to win a general election, 35% of the public liking you a bit more than anyone else who is standing will usually do.

All Jez needs to do is win back half the working class vote that slipped to UKIP and half the middle class that have gone Green or Lib Dem. Easy peasy.

half the working class vote that slipped to UKIP and half the middle class that have gone Green or Lib Dem.

Ha, and the whole of Scotland, and the seats they lost to the tories.

Nigel Farage you say?

No - but that is irrelevant to the point I am making. Anyone who mistakes Corbyn's popularity amongst the Labour selectorate with the potential for broader popularity needs their head examined.

@hefty - if that is so "easy peasy", why do polls suggest he is losing popularity?

That calculation also assumes he won't lose any existing support. Not sure that's a reasonable assumption.

and the seats they lost to the tories.

Labour won more seats from the Tories than lost. The Tories got their boost from the implosion of the lib dems.

This isn't to say it'd be easier, though. Just shows that it may in fact be harder.

mistakes Corbyn's popularity amongst the Labour selectorate with the potential for broader popularity needs their head examined.

Obv. There is the potential still though, surely?

It definitely does. If Labour is a "big tent" party as the moderates claim, and Corbyn was able to win support from a huge swatch of that "big tent," one would think it's interesting that he got support across the board (i.e., he's not only popular with the "metropolitan elites" or "traditional working classes" or "ABC1s" or blah blah blah).

Of course, the response would be the "big tent" only includes the people who were members pre-2015. Everyone else, from every other category, from every other part of the country (except Scotland), from every age demographic (except 18-24), from every class and background, is an entryist Trot. And the pre-2015 members who voted for Corbyn - long-game trots.

Still don't think Labour can win a majority. But this is pretty interesting and I hope with all hope that Labour can unite. Especially now that it's been reported that Cameron attacked May for not getting behind Remain! That card is toast if the Tories try to use it now.

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My favourite part of that is the Lib Dems, in spite of their excitement at the potential of sweeping up new members (and their tweet storm that followed Corbyn's win) have also dropped.

The reality, of course, is polls are questionable, and were they not, it's too soon to really be able to see what the long term impact will be. (i.e., If Corbyn is going to remain for the long run, Labour has a lot of work to do to overcome the impression they publicly created of him. Not going to be easy).

lols

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Or the fall.

#inb4schick

Labour won more seats from the Tories than lost.

That's interesting, kind of counter-intuitive, but definitely positive.

massive yellow cock.

The wink of khan ;)