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Oliver Schick
Why would we want to rush into a deal that preserves our 50 billion euro trade deficit with Germany? Don't you think that imbalance is a bit of a problem?
You do acknowledge that tariffs would change the trade that goes on, but you begin your analysis of their effects from the assumption that they wouldn't, which i think is nuts. The Germans won't much adjust their prices to adsorb the tariffs, so the extra will be paid by UK purchasers, making us all feel poorer. As we export so little to them, they'll barely notice paying extra for our stuff, and our devaluing currency will soften that further.
Actually the trade imbalance has been causing Germany problems too, leading to too much saving - driving down the interest rates for pensions, inflating asset bubbles and generally destabilising their banks and the the weaker eurozone economies. It would be much better for everyone if their trade surplus could be recycled into productive capital investments in the deficit economies. But we've voted ourselves out of the possibility of any such rational arrangements.