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Both Brailsford and Kerrison are convinced that riding the Vuelta in the autumn is key to performing well at the Tour the following year. Unless he's injured, Froome always rides the Vuelta. Every time he's won the Tour, he's started the Vuelta the year before.
Does he have a chance? Probably. Depends on how the race develops, but a 38 km flat ITT at the end favours him more than it favours Contador or Quintana. I doubt he'd be on the start line unless he thought he had a chance of winning.
I saw a thing this week somewhere, probably on here, that said success in the TdF relies on having ridden the Vuelta the year before. No idea how true that is.