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  • Let's put it into some context though. At the start of the Tour only three teams genuinely believed they had a chance of overall victory, Sky, Movistar and Tinkoff. Everyone else with GC aspirations were aiming at the podium, i.e. BMC, FDJ, AG2R, Trek-Segafredo et al.

    Tinkoff's challenge barely lasted the opening weekend, which left Sky and Movistar. The latter are a conservative team, one of the longest running teams in the peloton, but one which has modernised in the last few years. However, their strategy has been clear from the off, they believe Froome will weaken in the final week based on his previous two Tour wins. Last year he was definitely weakening, mainly due to illness, but I'd still dispute this was the case in 2013. He lost time to Quintana and Rodriguez at both Alpe d'Huez and Semnoz, but at the former it was a case of hunger knock and at the latter he sat up in the final kilometre knowing the race was won.

    After the Pyrenees, Movistar would've been content, Quintana was a handful of seconds behind Froome and Valverde was still up there to act as a foil should he be needed. However, the second week hasn't gone to plan and gradually Froome has eked out a three minute advantage over Quintana. Today, with four key GC stages remaining, Quintana is going to have to improve enormously, or more correctly, hold his form, whilst Froome's wanes. It might happen, but Sky's strength in depth, which is far superior to any other team, means they can put the race in a virtual headlock and control it to the end. They'll be aided by the likes of BMC, Trek-Segafredo, AG2R and Orica trying to ensure their leaders maintain or improve their GC positions.

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