Tour de France 2016

hard to call, anything can happen in the windy run-up to the Ventoux. the way 'New Froome' has been riding he probably won't be surprised, let's hope Nairo is paying full attention and will be allowed (unlike yesterday) to move up to the front when he needs to. it's going to be an exciting stage again!

Le astonishmente!

The psychological advantage of stuffing your opponents with clever and powerful riding is probably worth more than the time he took. I expect he will still crush today's stage.

He said post-race his rear derailler met someone's front wheel.

That's a euphemism if ever I've heard one.

I wanted to say 'inserted' but sometimes less is more.

There are three summit finishes between here and Paris. There are two short ITTs. There are two flat stages and two downhill finishes. Quintana has a 35s deficit to Froome. That pretty much dictates what is going to happen for the rest of the race.

Quintana has to make a move on all three of those up hill finishes. He has to make a move today to counter the deficit and prepare against the longer ITT. He has to move on the second to counter against a descending finish and the shorter ITT. He has to make a move on the third to prevent Froome from taking the yellow jersey on the final downhill finish and into the roll on Paris.

If we assess Froome's potential advantages on subsequent stages (4s on the long ITT, 2s on the short ITT, 2x10s for descending finishes and 2x2s for flat attacks) plus the 35s he already has, Quintana needs to find at least 66s. Froome has forced Quintana's hand because every time Quintana doesn't make an attack, Froome gets the benefit of only having to match him on subsequent days.

Prediction for today (on which I have been consistently wrong all tour): Quintana to attack at 6k to go. If the attack doesn't hold, Froome to attack at 3k. Both of those points are where the gradient goes black on the profile upthread.

Two people hospitalised with hypothermia overnight on Ventoux but the winds are down to just the 100km/h this morning!

#rep, great game plan summary. I think your prediction might be right this time

I remain unconvinced. There's still a lot of KOM interest in the race that could upset the running and Yates is still a bit of a wild card. He's kind of having to choose between a stage win or a podium finish. I'm finding it hard to read what the other GC contenders will be in the mood for as well. The gaps aren't encouraging but are we really at a two horse race already? I'm hoping a couple of others in the top ten are prepared to have a go at something today. They've turned up to race, surely it's too soon to just lay down now.

I've also completely pulled numbers out of the air based on what Froome has done so far and what I think he's prepared to do to win (i.e. just about everything). We haven't seen Quintana TT but I don't have any confidence in his ability to dish it out. So far, all he's really done is cover climbing attacks and fail to react assertively when Froome has gone off traditional plans. At the moment, it feels like he came to the Tour with an off the shelf "climb to win" race plan and now doesn't really know what to do with Sky busking their tactics.

Latest Secret Pro installment is up: http://cyclingtips.com/2016/07/the-secret-pro-at-the-2016-tour-de-france-sky-is-conserving-cav-is-back-and-squabbles-in-the-gruppetto/

The illustration of the secret pro makes him look like a burglar in the final stages of heroin addiction.

Gets in a couple of digs at Astana's "training regimes" too.

What about Landa? He’s certainly not climbing as well as he used to. He’s half the bike rider he was last year. It’s weird, every other rider that joins Sky transforms from a good bike rider to an incredible bike rider, but this guy seems to have gone from an incredible bike rider to a good bike rider. At the 2015 Giro, Landa was the strongest, he was dropping everyone, he was dropping Aru and Contador. Now his level is not anywhere near where he used to be.

And look at the Giro this year: How does Nibali come from 4:40 down, and in two mountain stages, take back 5:40. Come on. Seriously? It’s not possible, you do not get better in a Grand Tour, not in the last week. Although it looks like he can only get better at this Tour de France, as he’s clearly not racing for GC.

17 minutes gap to the peloton indicates not all has gone to plan and no mention of any wind .

Looking at the breakaway names, about 4 minutes will disappear on the first climbs and the rest will die on the lower slopes between Mazan and Bedoin. The GC plan will be to do very little until Cavaillon and start winding it up from there. Everyone knows this is a pocket money breakaway.

Really hoping Teklehaimanot is going to nick the Cat4.

My word. Eurosport presenters get worse every day.

So who is in the break? Dimension Data is down, and the commentators haven't said.

i'd like to see Martin take a massive gamble for the stage today.

Front 13 =Navarro, Clement, Pauwels, Chavanel, De Gendt, Sorensen, Coquard, Teklehaimanot, Lindeman, Keisse, Greipel, Lemoine and Vanmarckke and possibly also Greipel.

Mid 5 = Georg Preidler, Diego Rosa, Tom Jelte Slagter, Paul Voss and Alexus Gougeard. I think I've only heard of Voss from that lot. Anyone reckon that will make the catch?

Beeb textfeed saying split in the peleton.

It looks like a strung out mess. I wonder if the time chop will remove the hindmost today.

I'm watching on ITV4. Had forgotten the TV on my desk picks that up (Eurosport and ITV Player not options as work internet thinks I'm in the U.S.).

Last night watched the highlights on ITV because the Eurosport highlights were three hours long. Ain't nobody got time for that. Reminded me that the commentators are much less annoying and overall I'd say their highlights are better produced.

Therefore currently unsure why I'm paying for a Eurosport Player login.

Possibly. If some sprinters get shelled before the Cat 3 then I think they might end up in trouble. Don't imagine it will go to the50% rule though.

3-1 Cav calls it today.

In previous years I would usually subscribe to Eurosport for the month, but the ITV player iOS app is decent enough, with coverage starting from about 2pm each day and with great commentators, I don't feel a need to subscribe this year.

Does anyone else find the itv player stream quality to be total garbage? Tried it on two PCs, both of fiber and the resolution is awful

What a pile of drivel. Honestly, Shane Stokes should just give it up.