EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Madrid won't get anything from this. It's too warm and they have some daft rules. France is on a massive charm offensive right now, they are getting very serious about pitching themselves as a location.

could
might
likely

@graunch seems to know of a number of firms who are definitely leaving the UK. If that's true I might start getting worried, if it's more speculation I'm inclined to ignore it.

Close to me a number of major international employers (like Astra Zeneca and ARM) have issued specific statements that they are staying here. Their share prices are up.

http://jpubhealth.oxfordjournals.org/content/38/1/3.full.pdf+html

As even this superficial examination shows, a vote to leave
would only be the beginning of a very long, complicated and
painful process, the result of which is impossible to predict
with any certainty. The UK would still be required to adopt
most aspects of EU policies and standards. It would have to
pay to participate in EU structures. However, it would have
no say in these matters and, in many instances, participation
would be based on much less favourable terms that the
remaining member states. The idea that any country can act
entirely independently in a globalized world, or should do, is a
dangerous fantasy. The case for remaining rests not only on
the absence of any coherent vision of what would happen if
the UK left. The EU has provided continued bold and effective
action on public health policy and designed an excellent
funding framework for collaborative health research. The loss
of the UK’s strong participation and policy voice in the EU
would, as Lord Hague, the former Conservative Foreign
Secretary, recently quipped ‘not be a very clever day’s work’.2

Do you really think that an attempt to reunite Ireland won't burst out into another civil war.

Unionists are still insanely against joining ROI where catolic run education is still a major issue, where protestants would be in a massive minority still, where the Church has been coverig up sexual abuse, trying to influence politics and society for years and still is?

Do you think the population of the Republic would welcome a group which they fundamentally believe are facists, that the Unionists and another group they think supported terrorists for the last 40+ years?

My experience, the divide between the two areas is insane. People in Tipperary know nothing about NI bar the fact that they can cheap booze in Newry

If it's a FORCEFUL attempt yes it will well trigger unrest to a civil war.

If it's a border vote, it will probably lead to tensions (see also Brexit) but then people are asked what they think.

And then if there are enough people voted YES and YES then it will have to be handled very sensibly. But I don't see that happening ATM for the reasons you give.

The solution is of course to get rid of religious education on both sides while appreciating all religions/identities AND atheists which are discriminated against in ROI and in NI by catholic schools. The Census indicates very slow changes, but it will take a while before both places may be on the same page (bar some extremists)

But even then, money will be an issue...

Unionists are still insanely against joining ROI where catolic run education is still a major issue

In England people are all over faith schools, even going as far as getting their kids baptised to get them in.

I think someone just needs to explain the benefits to them.

If the passporting isn't carried on in whatever new deal is agreed, a large number of the banks, etc will be off. There just isn't a reason for them to have their offices here if they can't carry out the work.

The trouble is that it's a difficult sell. There's still a lot of anti-banker sentiment and if they become a casualty of Brexit then a lot of people won't care. It's not as emotive an issue as steel workers or the like.

Obviously there's little thought for the drop in tax revenues and all the other jobs that rely on the banks; the cleaners, sandwich shops, dry cleaners, restaurants, etc

Sarcasm I hope? :)

Right now I'm just hoping there'll be a moment when people collectively realise it's just not worth the hassle.

You might know the answer to this:
Why were Sinn Fein advocating a NI referendum on unification even before the Brexit vote? Have demographics changed that much that they could be optimistic about the outcome?

Also (and to Murakami as well): Yeah, I agree church education is a hideous business on both sides of the border. In Northern Ireland it's not only the fault of the Catholic church though is it? Both communities have seemed complacent about keeping their kids in separate schools and (presumably) perpetuating division.

What I really struggle to come terms with is the feelings of xenophobia / racism only seems to extend towards the poor. The same people who have these strong views towards the poor BME's will sing the praises of Drs or solicitors from the same BMEs.

This is the same dynamic as in the US for African Americans, although it has become even more complex as people internalise aspects of it.

Chris Rock satirised it quite controversially in a routine in 1996
https://vimeo.com/101567667

Yes, but it's now changing with Greens calling for integrated and Alliance as well, with the NI Humanist (NI arm of the GB humanist) landing in NI. Faith schools are ballix and they should get rid of them in England too. The GB humanist have shown they cause division there to no end as well.

Atheist Ireland are also campaigning and the ridiculousness of parents having to baptize kids now gets media attention. Of course the Dail comes up with half assed solutions cos... well. Stuff. Basically.

Ah Sinn Fein. Plastering the 1916 declaration all over the Falls while conveniently forgetting about Devalera. They're very silent on catholic schooling as well.

I don't see a unification vote working ATM. Surveys don't support it (though those can always be off badly) and there are too many insecurities on what it means for benefits/average wage, who pays for it and so on.

Though if it's campaigned on something nice sounding like "take back control..." :P

It's not speculation if it comes from leaked internal reports/plans.

But like I said until stuff actually happens I think there is a wait and see attitude, with some exceptions.

Nobody knows yet and the reality is it will take years to find out.

The current issue of Private Eye is a must-read for anyone with an interest in this thread

And that's the issue: It takes years and by then the damage is done and the brexit camp can blame it on something else.

A point to note re. immigration

A friend pointed out to me that immigrants are entitled to benefits - he has no issue with immigrants working (taking jobs which people here won't do) but he has an issue with immigrants claiming benefits - he reckons that the country could be bankrupted by claimants.

So the issue is not 'taking our jobs' per se; it may be 'taking our benefits'.

I think it is a valid point but i don't have any stats to justify it.

Richard

By that notion why isn't everyone in NI claiming the much better unemployment benefit in ROI...?

https://fullfact.org/economy/migration-and-welfare-benefits/
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/19/how-much-do-eu-migrants-c_n_9272428.html

Germany also put a cap on benefits:
http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160225/1035350390/eu-germany-social-benefits.html

And may do one worse:
http://www.thelocal.de/20160428/germany-to-block-eu-citizens-from-welfare-for-5-years

Divide and conquer

Funny. Is there any white equivalents about?

Ms J,

I have experience of a person claiming benefits in both jurisdictions! The person was an immigrant claiming asylum. I have my doubts as to the validity of his claim tough.

I actually was not making a difference between NI and England - i thought the benefits system would be the same - in that, i stand to be corrected.

Getting ready for the weekend, tonight Wimbledon and Peroni - TdF tomorrow - with Harp, footie on Sunday with coffee!

Richard

if someone is claiming asylum to the UK they aren't allowed to claim benefits (in the traditional sense). they do get an allowance of around £5 per day. they are also have to live wherever they are told and can be moved with little warning to anywhere in the country.

Republic of Ireland supposedly has better unemployment benefits.

So of friend is right why do all Ni scroungers not move to ROI? ;)

@marcomarcos
yes Private Eye is a gem read this week.

claiming benefits

It might be helpful to clarify which benefits - unemployment benefit, access to free health care?

If they have been contributing via national insurance, then on a very basic moral level why should there be an issue?

some numbers here for your friend

The UK Government response to the petition for a more decisive result and 2nd referendum:

The European Union Referendum Act received Royal Assent in December 2015, receiving overwhelming support from Parliament. The Act did not set a threshold for the result or for minimum turnout.

The EU Referendum Act received Royal Assent in December 2015. The Act was scrutinised and debated in Parliament during its passage and agreed by both the House of Commons and the House of Lords. The Act set out the terms under which the referendum would take place, including provisions for setting the date, franchise and the question that would appear on the ballot paper. The Act did not set a threshold for the result or for minimum turnout.

As the Prime Minister made clear in his statement to the House of Commons on 27 June, the referendum was one of the biggest democratic exercises in British history with over 33 million people having their say. The Prime Minister and Government have been clear that this was a once in a generation vote and, as the Prime Minister has said, the decision must be respected. We must now prepare for the process to exit the EU and the Government is committed to ensuring the best possible outcome for the British people in the negotiations.

Foreign and Commonwealth Office