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If it's a FORCEFUL attempt yes it will well trigger unrest to a civil war.
If it's a border vote, it will probably lead to tensions (see also Brexit) but then people are asked what they think.
And then if there are enough people voted YES and YES then it will have to be handled very sensibly. But I don't see that happening ATM for the reasons you give.
The solution is of course to get rid of religious education on both sides while appreciating all religions/identities AND atheists which are discriminated against in ROI and in NI by catholic schools. The Census indicates very slow changes, but it will take a while before both places may be on the same page (bar some extremists)
But even then, money will be an issue...
JWestland-
You might know the answer to this:
Why were Sinn Fein advocating a NI referendum on unification even before the Brexit vote? Have demographics changed that much that they could be optimistic about the outcome?Also (and to Murakami as well): Yeah, I agree church education is a hideous business on both sides of the border. In Northern Ireland it's not only the fault of the Catholic church though is it? Both communities have seemed complacent about keeping their kids in separate schools and (presumably) perpetuating division.
Fintan
Do you really think that an attempt to reunite Ireland won't burst out into another civil war.
Unionists are still insanely against joining ROI where catolic run education is still a major issue, where protestants would be in a massive minority still, where the Church has been coverig up sexual abuse, trying to influence politics and society for years and still is?
Do you think the population of the Republic would welcome a group which they fundamentally believe are facists, that the Unionists and another group they think supported terrorists for the last 40+ years?
My experience, the divide between the two areas is insane. People in Tipperary know nothing about NI bar the fact that they can cheap booze in Newry