EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Pedantry. Drop it

The devil is in the detail, especially in International Relations.

we are on a bike forum

Doesnt mean we have to get facts wrong

Does mean you'd have to be a total plonker to derail an otherwise interesting thread by irrelevant and annoying pedantry about the use of a term which everybody else understood perfectly well.

it almost assures it. anyway, maybe we should get back to the Brexit debate.

I havent derailed anything, I'm questioning terminology and trying to dispel confusion.
I only speak for myself.

A firm that is authorised by the FSA is counted as being auhorised in all member states. That disappearing will be a major issue.

That is huge.

I can't see any government, let alone a tory one fucking that up.

That said I know of one Gibraltar company setting up Maltise branches so to pre-empt any passporting issues. So I assume that's now actually a thing.

Perhaps I didn't explain, these aren't my views but views of people I talk to and a lifetime of living amongst them.

You'd be really surprised at the strength of feeling towards 'immigrants and asylum seekers' and the depth of genuine belief that 'they come here and get a free house and benefits whilst our own have to wait'.

It's caused huge riots in my nearest towns of Burnley and Blackburn. And there was a large inquiry into why it happened which basically concluded that the mutual feelings towards BME's was too ingrained to change or as to why the area is the way it is.

What I really struggle to come terms with is the feelings of xenophobia / racism only seems to extend towards the poor. The same people who have these strong views towards the poor BME's will sing the praises of Drs or solicitors from the same BMEs.

It's probably just being frustrated not having a job.

Even theregister will quote a professor saying that immigration helps those with skills, but not so much those that are low-waged.

But it's not the immigrants faults local companies undercut locals/locals don't have skills/just don't want to do the work.

A duck farm in ROI relies on Lithuanians. I can't see that being fun work and perhaps such jobs are bar shit also seen as below people.

As the same time it's easier to go after "immigrants" than thrash Westminster.

Perhaps I didn't explain, these aren't my views but views of people I talk to and a lifetime of living amongst them.

Oh, you should definitely make that clear, otherwise it just reflects badly on you as a reader would imagine that those were your words, your views.

Right, those small countries have done a great job of continually carving out niches for themselves, but they are not in of themselves centres.

Just thinking aloud though do you still need a "centre" and if you do, how much work needs to be allocated there?

One thing that is important imo is that London as a City is a massive draw. It is a truly amazing city.... Which I guess makes it's ours to loose.

I know of many firms in the process of moving operations to the mainland.

A lot of firms were doing this in any case - London is one of the highest cost centres in the world, and certainly in the European time zone.

But yes, if Mifid is no longer in play for the UK, then there's less reason to have a branch in the UK, given the additional costs, restricted capital flows & probably increased regulatory inertia and bureaucracy.

Paris is talking about stealing London's crown as the financial capital of Europe.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/06/france-strong-bid-banking-business-poised-to-leave-london-paris-brexit-manuel-valls

One of the theories going round is that in the Brexit negotiations, France and Germany will allow the UK access to the single market + a 'hand-brake' on free movement of people, but will not allow passporting.

This will make it all but impossible for the Leave government to refuse, as they get everything they promised in the referendum, but the UK will lose a large part of the City.

JP Morgan could move thousands:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-jpmorgan-idUKKCN0ZN0KS

A leaked Jaguar Land Rover internal report ahead of the Brexit vote said they might move their HQ to Brussels or Luxembourg:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-jaguarlandrover-exclusive-idUKKCN0Z71SF

(It also said Brexit is likely to cost them a billion pounds).

I think most firms are watching what happens and seeing how it pans out for the moment though. These are worst case scenarios.

After all, it's still not definite we will actually Brexit. If Brexit becomes a certainty I would expect to see a lot of this sort of thing actually happening.

I think France's challenge will be the ones it's always faced - tax, employment regs, language.

Ministers can make all the wishful statements they want, I just can't see the population wearing the changes needed.

That would be an excellent negotiating strategy.

I can't really see what the counter move would be.

... other than just totally lie about the terms of the deal.

Noted thanks.

Paris won't get the financial capital crown, even though they are vying for it.

Frankfurt would win it first.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Financial_Centres_Index

Depends on the business line. Frankfurt is a trading hub but Paris is a good place for capital markets. Dublin for asset management. One of Londons advantages was that it did all three rather well but if that collapses, those three will be able to pick up their respective pieces of pie.

You need centres because you want to be able to hire easily to replace leavers. That's a lot easier in a centre where you are trying to entice someone from across the street rather than a dispersed industry where you might be trying to entice someone from across a continent.

I know little of these things but could the UK accept such a deal and then reduce corporation tax further to keep the City. Like way low. The government could recoup loss with increasing income tax, VAT, council tax and reduce welfare. They could put the blame on Brexit and the EU now hating us. It even sounds like something the Tories would do.

Frankfurt, Madrid and Dublin appear to be the places that back and middle office functions are heading to. Front office functions are also moving to Dublin (they already exist in Frankfurt in spades).

You don't really hear conversations about people moving o Paris.

Because, French right?