EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

I've done research around this to satisfy myself

You should publish. This is groundbreaking stuff.

This extract really struck me re the growing distance between groups of the population. Written about US politics but clearly applicable here, the explosion of media/opinion/entertainment/news etc means we can construct a self-selected world in which to live and never have to hear different perspectives... article here from the New Yorker

e are now two separate ideological countries, LeftLand and RightLand, speaking different languages, the lines between us down. Not only do our two subcountries reason differently; they draw upon non-intersecting data sets and access entirely different mythological systems. You and I approach a castle. One of us has watched only “Monty Python and the Holy Grail,” the other only “Game of Thrones.” What is the meaning, to the collective “we,” of yon castle? We have no common basis from which to discuss it. You, the other knight, strike me as bafflingly ignorant, a little unmoored. In the old days, a liberal and a conservative (a “dove” and a “hawk,” say) got their data from one of three nightly news programs, a local paper, and a handful of national magazines, and were thus starting with the same basic facts (even if those facts were questionable, limited, or erroneous). Now each of us constructs a custom informational universe, wittingly (we choose to go to the sources that uphold our existing beliefs and thus flatter us) or unwittingly (our app algorithms do the driving for us). The data we get this way, pre-imprinted with spin and mythos, are intensely one-dimensional.

... what will happen to this funding if we do end up leaving the single market. Which seems likely to happen as that's an under pinning principle of the EU and EEC... [?]

Whatever the campaign may have said and whatever people may have thought they were voting for, I really, really struggle to see how a Conservative lead government it going to negotiate to reduce free trade/markets.

All the Brexit Torys I know envisage a tax haven financial services hub with global free trade deals left right and centre.

It's this sort of thing I fear the most.
There is a risk that the millions of UK based EU nationals will spend years not knowing what their future holds.

I've sorta come to terms with that. But I can always move back to my parents if the shit really hits the fan.

If the aim of this is to make immigrants miserable my protest can be to not be miserable ;)

[bar this weird dream I had about Theresa May....brrrr]

Unpublished letter to The Guardian:

Rock Island Line:
(slightly abbreviated)

'The driver, he shout down to the man at the toll gate;
I got pigs, I got horses, I got cows
I got all livestock.
When he safely through he shout back down the line:
Fooled you, fooled you,
I got pig iron, I got all pig iron.'

This is pretty much what the leading Brexiteers said immediately after winning the vote by a modest margin.

If they admit they won by lying, how can they claim that the voice of the people has spoken immutably?

Yours,

Fucking hell the current economic forecast looks bleak.

It's not just what I'm hearing from the BoE and other anlaysts that is bringing me down. I'm hearing about people I know losing jobs and pay cuts being enforced to help pay international bills.

I've heard of a few projects that have had funding pulled too. I really hope this doesn't turn out to be as bad as it could be.

It's going to be that bad.

I was really shocked that it even reached LFGSS by adding so much to the monthly bill because of the USD > GBP exchange rate.

Already know of a few people laid off, a couple of 10% reductions in house purchase offers, and over-listened talk from a Buy-To-Let seller on the train this morning who fears that they can't afford to hold too long, yet selling will come at a big loss.

Now that last one, perhaps that's a good thing... but a crashing housing market is going to have ramifications way beyond "My rent has gone down.".

still think calling brexit voters fucking idiots is 'unhelpful'?

I just had a look at some Brexit facebook pages, fuck my life there are some hideous cunts out there.

It was always going to be risk but it is rather nerve wracking to have taken on a fucking mahoosive mortgage in May.

It is unhelpful, cathartic but unhelpful

Ah....he's my MP too.

Some of this 'engineering exports to Germany' is really just inter-company transfers.
The Ford works at Dagenham has transformed from a fully vertically integrated vehicle manufacturing plant
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Dagenham
based upon the success of the Ford River Rouge plant in Detroit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_River_Rouge_Complex

Nowadays, Ford Dagenham assembles diesel engines for Ford Europe and North America.

Ford can without too much difficulty transfer this assembly to any of their EU-domiciled factories. They even showed the Uk government what can happen when the Transit plant in Southampton was transferred to the existing Ford plant in Kocaeli, Turkey,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Otosan

I'm guessing it is the same for GM, and the BMW engine plant at Hams Hall.

The thing is... they externally appear to be as bad as climate change deniers. Constantly claiming that the facts don't tell the their story, whilst denying the validity of everything that the press is saying (it's biased!) and denying the validity of everything that the BoE or others are saying.

Their head is so fully buried in the sand, whilst also wearing blinkers and covering ears... that there appears to be an absolute failure by the Leavers in general to take responsibility for their actions and now come up with a clear strategy for what comes next.

Every day of uncertainty is going to damage everyone more.

I work in the engineering department of a university. All my funding comes from massive EU projects. I am very worried about completing on my house.

correspondence between myself and my MP

Dear prancer,

Thanks for your email. The Leave campaign was a coalition of people across the spectrum, from the left of Labour to the right of the Conservative Party. And then in a separate outfit was Nigel Farage and his people. It was not a Government-in-waiting, with a manifesto to deliver, and it couldn’t have been. It doesn’t matter how many referendums we have, such a coalition could never agree a manifesto. That’s what General Elections are for.
The next Leader will present a plan, and for my part, I will work as closely as I can with him/her to make sure it works.
Best wishes,
Zac

Begin forwarded message:

Date: 30 June 2016 20:42:44 BST
To: Zac Goldsmith zac@zacgoldsmith.com

So do you actually have any idea how to make it work?

The first referendum was a terrible exercise in democracy with the populous being lied to.

A second referendum would be fair as people are now aware of the fact they could be voting themselves into an utterly unplanned event.

On 30 Jun 2016, at 19:59, Zac Goldsmith zac@zacgoldsmith.com wrote:

Dear Mr jiggy jimmy,

Thank you for your comments, which I have noted.

I don't believe it would be right or democratic for the vote to be overruled. A clear majority - in a very large turnout referendum - have said they want us to leave the European Union, even despite the odds being so stacked against such an outcome. To ignore it would cause tremendous damage to our democracy and would, in my view, tear our country apart.

In a referendum where each vote is of equal value, we must all go with our own instincts. Although I didn’t actively campaign on the issue, I backed Brexit because I felt and feel that is where our best future lies. The democratic arguments in favour of Brexit are, I believe, uncontestable. But more than that - we are the fifth biggest economy in the world. Our Capital is a global one, with global reach. We dominate in financial services, tech, fin tech, media, culture and much more besides. We now have the freedom to do trade deals with some of the fastest growing markets in the world like China, India and the US. I believe we have a bright and great future ahead of us.

The challenge now is to make the decision work for Britain, to provide certainty for businesses and to do everything we can to heal the wounds caused during the campaign. That means reaching out as a matter of urgency to reassure those people living in the UK who come from elsewhere in Europe; it means working on a compromise that reflects the fact that the outcome of the referendum was not a landslide, and it means finding resolution urgently to the issues raised.

Best wishes,

Zac Goldsmith

Begin forwarded message:

Date: 29 June 2016 19:10:33 BST
To: "Zac Goldsmith MP" >

                                    Tuesday 28 June 2016

Dear Zac Goldsmith,

Please reject the referendum result as the populace were clearly lied
to and did not understand the implications of what they were voting
for.

Yours sincerely,

dancing james

Yep.

Remember we are all in it together. Bar that guy on Facebook who dismisses anything reasonable and votes UKIP :P

We now have the freedom to do trade deals with some of the fastest growing markets in the world like China, India and the US.

Which the UK already had, but sure don't let facts...

He's right though different people had different reasons. The true left never liked the EU. But he's wrong to then suggest there was nothing about a manifesto IMHO.

I mean they SUGGEST a manifesto (kick out them foreigners, leave the EU but not the EEC, spend money on the NHS) and then just leave it to the next general election with f-all guarantees knowing full well the EU wouldn't give any. The blame lies with the Brexit ones in power, end of.

(says the person who wouldn't mind learning welding / brazing / making stuff etc. fecking computers)

Working in a steel mill...can you imagine it? eight hours of making shit that matters followed by beers. EVERY DAY.

The negative equity following the collapse of the 'Lawson Boom' was based upon the legacy of (mutual) building societies conservative lending policies, typically 3.5 time salary at most and a 10% deposit. The scale of potential negative equity now is far, far worse.

Same boat. My better half is really, really anxious - and feels silly for buying at the top of the market (and probably overpaying) before a period of economic uncertainty.

I'm not quite as worried (although not exactly happy). We have a 5yr fixed that is less than we'd pay renting (assuming we can make it there long enough to eat the SDLT). We had 25% deposit, not 5%. Interest rates are still a million miles from what my parents had to pay. Also our reason for buying the house we bought was to have somewhere we'd be able to to live for life if we needed to.

I guess the real problem comes if we loose our jobs and can't afford our mortgage, etc.

Rent can go down?

Only if you're made unemployed in the process and it effectively becomes totally unaffordable rather than mostly unaffordable.