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Even if 50.1% of a turnout of 50.1% voted leave, giving us:
25.1% Leave
25.0% Remain
49.9% Not BotheredAt first glance, I would say that not being bothered means not bothered to change the status quo. If 100% said not bothered, would that mean that you had a mandate to change it as you saw fit, or does it mean that you cannot change anything?
christianSpaceman-
Which is a perfectly reasonable assumption which is often built into referendums.
Not this one.
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Bearing mind that Not Bothered was determined by an abstention then 100% Not Bothered would be a complete abstention in a referendum including those that called for, campaigned for and ran the referendum. I think that you have absolutely no mandate to change anything. I'd take it further to suggest that you don't even have a mandate for any further representation in parliament.
However, to look at this in a more realistic perspective, as you drop below 50% turnout then I think that whatever result you have, your mandate to take action on the issue declines similarly as you have failed to engage the country in the matter.
Interpreting not bothered as meaning not bothered to change the status quo is confirmation bias, a Leaver could also interpret it as being not bothered to keep the status quo. It really only can be taken as being completely neutral on the subject.
The_Seldom_Killer
I honestly doesn't work like that.
When it comes down to a general election, there is an argument that even a majority vote can lack a mandate if they don't command the support of the majority of the voting population. For instance, it could be taken that a portion of society is sufficiently disaffected by the political process that they don't wish to engage with it. These people, along with all those that did vote but for other parties are therefore saying they don't want to governed by the party that has been returned to power. However, that argument is actually pretty flimsy.
A similar argument simply doesn't apply to a referendum. This is because it is asking a question on what national policy should be regardless of which party is in power in government. The 30% that didn't vote have to be presumed to not be sufficiently interested in the issue to express an opinion. Therefore the extrapolated results are:
36.4% Leave
33.6% Remain
30.0% Not Bothered.
That 36.4% is your mandate right there.
Even if 50.1% of a turnout of 50.1% voted leave, giving us:
25.1% Leave
25.0% Remain
49.9% Not Bothered
You still have a mandate to Leave because you can't act on Not Bothered. Those non-voting people have to be presumed to not object to either outcome. The people who did vote still have that right to have their views represented in the House of Commons. To argue that there is not mandate because less than 50% of the voting population support something is expecting that everyone has an opinion on a matter and that simply isn't reasonable. You're allowed to not have an opinion and abstain from expressing one if you want to.