EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

In Swiss referenda they have an option you tick saying you don't think you have sufficient information on the topic to make an informed decision. A surprisingly high proportion of people use that box. But that's Switzerland.

Yeah, but we import way more than we export, and we don't manufacture enough for that to change, so on balance we lose.

Or were you just playing that 'bright side' game?

First I was reminding people of the proposed Tory Trade Union legislation, designed to make it (almost) impossible for a legitimate ballot to result in legitimate strike action,
where the 'Apathy (non-)vote' would be used to frustrate the result.

UK GE politics with it's FPTP, has allowed lazy politicians to thrive on apathy, creating many blocked constituencies, where there is no crushing (true) majority, but no likelihood that all opposition votes will ever focus on one candidate and dislodge the incumbent.

The referendum was/is different. There is no current tense for judging referenda, as we just don't have them often enough.

Cameron was intensely indulgent by not setting minima to structure expectations. If that drives participation, I'm all for it. If there are a shy/silent majority of brexitters who crush Remain by a clear. true majority, I shut up, and wonder how i misjudged my country.

SamW upthread shows there are just 34 out of 382 areas where there is a clear mandate.

Having a read of a constitutional piece that has highlighted that the PM could use the Royal Prerogative to issue an Article 50 declaration.

Ignoring the inherently democratic nature of a referendum for a moment, it's interesting that the mechanism could be via an unelected effective head of state, overriding Parliament, from the power they derive from a hereditary monarch.

http://theulsterfry.com/world-news/how-to-survive-brexit-an-ulster-fry-guide/ <- NI chips in. Move to Strabane 10% of your house price is only £12.50

Wait, you are telling me the UK isn't a proper democracy, just like the EU? :P

the power they derive from a hereditary monarch.

I suspect all power in the UK derives from this same font.

democratic

I'm noticing people throwing this word around an awful lot at the moment, and inferring whatever meaning from it that suits their own particular narrative, at that particular time.

Also - post a link, then. Everyone loves a bit of academic constitutional musing.

Alright, alright. I was reading it on a desktop.

Here it is : https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-barber-tom-hickman-and-jeff-king-pulling-the-article-50-trigger-parliaments-indispensable-role/

Just to qualify, I've put forward a simplified version of an argument rather than the actual answer. I won't spoil the ending as I know everyone finds constitutional law gripping.

Yes I'm also pretty sure that all power is dirived from the monarch. But it still makes me lol in the context of the supposed authoritatian unelected facist illuminati that is the EU.

On the democratic point, 100% agree. Although I do think that a referendum is one of the few fundamentally democratic process around / possible with large populations.

Even if 50.1% of a turnout of 50.1% voted leave, giving us:

25.1% Leave
25.0% Remain
49.9% Not Bothered

At first glance, I would say that not being bothered means not bothered to change the status quo. If 100% said not bothered, would that mean that you had a mandate to change it as you saw fit, or does it mean that you cannot change anything?

Which is a perfectly reasonable assumption which is often built into referendums.

Not this one.

#thanksdave

Got the wrong end of a brexiters temper at work. Not blaming him, tempers are frayed atm and he seems annoyed about the "no plan B" going around well...errr...everywhere. But jaysus, not fun, I didn't even bring it up, other colleague had to walk off it was that bad.

This referendum...making enemies of everyone until we've all calmed down. Turns out I calmed down, but it hurts to be told "it's a democracy the people have spoken" and you can't even vote and stand more to lose.

I was trying to play the bright side game.

Not sure I understand.

Out of curiosity what was he annoyed about? That there is no road map for what comes next?

Also I'm going to keep banging the drum that I don't care what the majority said in the referendum, I'm going to continue to protest this however I can. Anyone with a brain can make arguments either way as to why or why not we should ignore it.

I don't see what I have to loose.

I did misunderstand you. Sorry.

Not sure how UK has strength (or more relative strength) before they press that button though or how Germany might have less. I think it's apparent that pressing it at some point is inevitable. Unless the only leverage is 'We'll take our time because that maximises uncertainty and, with it, damage to other European economies.' Which would be hooliganism.

This is worth a read: https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/748097437047332864

Well a colleague of mine joked "so what do you think, I think there's no plan b and we're screwed" to me. Other guy heard it, he's pissed off with HamCunt (fair enough!) and thinks it's all due to just renegotiating trade agreements and all will be well.

So he seems annoyed a lot of people point out there is no plan (I don't think there is) and blames Cameron for not pushing the button (so new plans can be put in motion). Must be taking all these Remain memes a bit too personal. I think.

I ain't gonna ask him. No work of "sorry was a bit fiery" over the communicator. So...no use. I don't mind him but we are not chums either.

Other colleague was MKKKWAY and walked off (and told me over the communicator he was a bit baffled too) perhaps just bad luck I got the end of the frustration. He seems unhappy it's so drawn out and has to deal with all the Remain memes*

*tiny violin. But don't forget Brexiters thinks all is well else they would not have voted. I am pessimistic. Can't blame people for that. I can't either hope for acknowledgment that as an EU national this is just that bit more fucky as I get no say in the UK referendum. But hey.

EDIT He never wanted in, in the first vote. I think pointing out the UK was a different place then is not a good idea. (understatement of the year).

I wonder what we'll do with all the empty sky scrapers?

Urban paint ball?

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/2014-2019/andriukaitis/blog/thoughts-weareseat123_en

Person facepalming himself when Farage spoke speaks out. Seems an OK chap. Survived the Gulag. (a million times Farage etc etc)

Bearing mind that Not Bothered was determined by an abstention then 100% Not Bothered would be a complete abstention in a referendum including those that called for, campaigned for and ran the referendum. I think that you have absolutely no mandate to change anything. I'd take it further to suggest that you don't even have a mandate for any further representation in parliament.

However, to look at this in a more realistic perspective, as you drop below 50% turnout then I think that whatever result you have, your mandate to take action on the issue declines similarly as you have failed to engage the country in the matter.

Interpreting not bothered as meaning not bothered to change the status quo is confirmation bias, a Leaver could also interpret it as being not bothered to keep the status quo. It really only can be taken as being completely neutral on the subject.

52 vs 48 is a tiny majority. In The Netherlands any fundamental changes in government need a 2/3rd majority. Last EU ref (which was ignored, was on EU constitution) was 60% in favor.

But with nothing nailed down in the UK (no bill of rights, not clear constitution) anybody complaining will just get a reply of "Well it's a majority, so belm". The only way out is saying "well it wasn't legally binding, and no I won't do it" but how many BreGret ones are there?

Some Brexit ones maybe now realize promises of immigration won't be made, so how will they vote? Not vote? Not vote and thrash the place as protest?

(again well done to all involved for calling this, idiots)

52/48 is too generous,
51.9/48.1 shows it is even tighter.
Who gains from instability in 'The Market'?
Not ZHCs, not minimum wage earners, not PAYE wage slaves.

I'm still at the stage of screaming RACIST, or "baby boomer cunt" at anybody who wants to defend their brexit vote. It's not winning any friends but I'm still at the anger stage. That being said I'm currently in Italy, with this view and no other English people about.

It's not a rational choice. It's a choice based on principles, most of which are not investigated for likelyhood of successful outcome.

As somebody already wrote it's often for a longing for "control". If this control is delivered and what the costs/benefits are is not investigated.

And even if it is, there is a shitload of data to sift through and lots of insecurities to deal with. A Remain based on "the UK is now a small fish, sorry guys" would not have done well at all :P

But if EU hate already simmers, then what is data going to do?