EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

I'm sure that's no mistake. After all, the BBC is a well-known hotbed of marxism.

^^^ hnnnng.

I think you have misunderstood what I mean by relative strength.

The UK, at the moment, does not have a two year ticking clock counting down the time by which it needs to have all of it's exit formally negotiated.

During that two years, the EU (and possibly anywhere else with whom the UK needs to negotiate) will have distinct advantages, insofar as the UK needs them more than they need the UK.

The relative strength of the UK now (from a negotiating perspective) is as compared to the UK once Article 50 is triggered. It's not going to evolve. It's going to get weaker.

Germany knows this. The EU knows this. Unsurprisingly, they would like their positions to be as strong as possible too.

Time will tell whether Germany is posturing or not.

He should of used another phrase.

Yes the Swiss were told they would be booted out of the single market and as yet that Ref result has not been implemented.

Which begs the question as to whether a vote to trigger it would ever be won, given the majority of MPs are against it.

It could be political suicide for an MP to vote against it. Certainly a majority of them do not have a mandate for voting against Brexit from their constituents (based on the referendum data).

MPs are in the tricky position of needing to reflect the opinions of the majority of their constituents, along with doing what they think is best for the country as a whole. It's a fundamental problem with a representative democracy like ours.

Piss off the Brexiters by canning it in the HoP and the protest vote at the next GE could result in UKIP stealing a significant number of votes off Lab/Con/etc, possibly leading to a hung parliament with UKIP holding the keys to avoid a minority Government.

The risk might be worth it though, there's 4 years to go and it would depend on what kind of new deal we can get from the EU (despite the EU saying there would be no new deal).

I love that. Switzerland holds a referendum. The Swiss government discovers that the outcome of that referendum would come at too high a cost. The Swiss government (presumably) decides to disregard referendum result.

Now that people have seen the wheels come off the wagon, have seen what Brexit really means, have seen all the leave campaigners promises evaporate into thin air, any MP can argue that it's in the best interests to 'delay' until things are known further. That 'delay' could be indefinite.....

I've already written to my MP to request he vote that way. Given that 60% of his constituents voted to remain, and that his party leader campaigned on a 'remain' ticket, I'm hoping that he will follow their lead. Otherwise, who exactly is he representing?

We've done this. Get over it! You're not right.

DO let UKIP get in the government. Then everybody can see they're not as great as they make out to be.

(also they ought to have had seats, FPP sucks)

Everyone should be writing to their MP, expressing their views on how s/he votes on any Brexit issues. Especially if you voted remain and the majority of your fellow constituents voted remain.

The referendum is not binding on anyone, let alone the HoC.
A sensible PM would have put down some threshholds,
minimum &age participation, minimum %age for/against.
The Tories cannot claim they do not understand this,
they just tried to implement such in the Trade Union legislation, I think is currently 'pending'. That Cameron didn't is on him, but also on us.
Given that even the 'winners' are sad at having won, I would welcome a GE with the non-kipper Tory party and the (bulk of) the Labour Party campaigning for EU membership,
against the racists and their fellow travellers in UKIP.
With a clear split in the Tory party, and wavering Tory MPs reminded of Reckless's fate, it would be to Labour's advantage.

And it wouldn't be political suicide to oppose the will of your constituents. You may lose some votes, but you may gain some too.

This country is, after all, a parliamentary democracy and the only way to enact (and repeal) laws, is via a vote in parliament. The EU referendum was very clearly non-binding, in that any change to the Lisbon Treaty requires parliamentary approval. Just because 52% of those who voted did so for leave does not make it mandatory. Sure it might piss people off, but given they are pissed off already with a supposed undemocratic system, another example of that isn't going to do much damage.

who's we, whitey?

#prscrptvsm4lyf

This is a good point. If your MP is Tory and from a constituency where Leave gained the most votes, refer them to their own proposed secret ballot legislation on trade unions, where 50% of the entire membership must approve a strike, not just 50% of those who vote. Tell them that what is good for the goose, is good for the gander too.

https://www.lfgss.com/comments/12397539/

In case you had a few minutes spare.

yeah, i really don't.

The die is well and truly cast.

I thought I'd share this excerpt from a letter than my 72 year old Dad sent to his MP yesterday.

I have just read Geoffrey Robertson's article in today's Guardian. I too am a barrister, now retired, although I do not purport to speak with the same authority as Mr Robertson.
If Mr Robertson's analysis is correct then it appears that you will have to vote on a measure in our own House of Commons later this year.
I believe that you supported the Prime Minister and most of the cabinet in seeking to remain in the EU. How could you vote to leave the EU if your own conscience tells you that we should stay?
No doubt much further thought will be given to the matter in the ensuing months but I urge you to give early thought to your position.
Perhaps, in a sense, I am fortunate to be able to say this, but I can't think of a worse day in my life. Events since the vote have only served to exacerbate matters.
I could go on but, quite shortly, I feel an utter sense of despair. And I want to know what you are going to do about it.

Everyone sucks but not @greenhell. Is that the answer?

#welcomethetrexoverlords

^ uknoezitfam

That's peaked my interest

The referendum is not binding on anyone, let alone the HoC.
A sensible PM would have put down some threshholds,
minimum &age participation, minimum %age for/against.

Sure, but they/he didn't. There's no point revisiting the terms of the referendum and wishing they were different. The result is, sadly, as it is.

I'm all for MPs to vote against the legislation changes in the HoC. That would make me happy as I want to remain. I'm just saying it's unlikely that the required majority will do at the moment. Maybe it'll take a few more to come out and say that and then momentum will pick up. I do hope so anyway.

The terms of article 50 are well set down, and less than favourable for anyone pursuing exit from the European Union. The idea that the UK can negotiate "from a position of strength" is a mindset typical of the arrogance that has got the UK into this mess in the first place. Europe has got a lot of things to be getting on with, a huge number of reforms to push through, a continent to run and assist with the flowering of culture, education and mutual understanding and appreciation. Plus, while this lamentable state of affairs will indeed damage the European economy as a whole, it will damage the UK's economy considerably more as there's far more of Europe to shoulder the hardship, and of course the UK is running a huge balance of payments deficit with Europe.

The UK was always a reluctant member of the EU, acting as a drag to many reforms, unwilling to commit to the Euro (although it did come close to joining under Blair's leadership). The EU is being very reasonable in saying so you voted out, now what do you want to do? But the UK does not at present have the answers to this, beyond suggesting it can keep membership of the free market but without any of the costs of that membership, a product of Boris's fevered imagination to rival any of the untruths pedalled during the campaign.

I hope that the UK can put together some kind of exit strategy. However I find the arrogance breathtaking in saying that it wants to leave, and from the Brexiters that we now must follow this "democratic decision", but that the rest of Europe should just hang on and wait until it the UK decides what it wants next. You either agree that you are part of something larger than yourself but with shared concerns and interests, or you do not. The UK has spoken that it does not want to be part of this. Fine, the European Union is saying, but at least have the decency to respect our choice too, our diplomatic boundaries and the rules of our community. I'm probably not going to win many friends by saying this, but by showing itself happy to run rough shod over the community, by the frankly embarrassing display of Farage in the parliament today, to say "it's over" but refuse to move out, the UK (or, more specifically, the Conservative-UKIP pact) is showing itself to be not politically or emotionally mature enough to be any part of a union of this nature.

LB Hillingdon.
MPs, north, (Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner), Nick Hurd, south, (Uxbridge & South Ruislip) Alexander Boris de Pfeiffel Johnson.
Vote: leave 56.4% / 74982 : remain 43.6% / 59040
Turnout: 68.9%
so just 38.5% of the electorate, so would be a loss under the Trade Union voting requirements.
We have a solution.