EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Did you waive your rights?
Cameron was uninvited.
How's the UK going to stop the rest of the EU having meetings without them? How would 'you can't' work?

I thought we were subjected to an analysis post 2015 GE,
that showed the masterful way Cameron targetted LibDem/Tory marginals,
(Cornwall/Devon, Vince Cable's seat),
as these were seen as easier to convert than (some) Labour/Tory marginals?

Ha!

I've a Belgian friend who described the governments inability to govern a blessing. While everyone else has been imposing austerity on their people, there is no chance of that taking place in Belgium. Things just keep ticking over.

Because we are not in a position to start negotiations given that this outcome wasn't expected or planned for.

Pull the trigger and we could find ourselves out 24 mo later with nothing conceded or agreed.

What is the forum? If it is just European leaders, I take the point. If it is any formal European Union forum (e.g. Council of Ministers) then as current members of the EU we have right to representation.

Just a theory but:
Drag it out long enough and you run up against the fixed term parliament coming to an end in the middle of negotiations. So then you need to delay until after an election, the new government refuses to be bound by the actions of the previous government and ignores the previous government's referendum result.

Well this is what happens if you piss people off.

Companies are already leaving too. It would be nice if everybody chilled the fuck out, but they've been warned about this too.

Longest time w/o a government, and everything still worked :P

We just need a big computer ;)

How long now, since the USA have failed to choose a new SCOTUS judge?

Take it up with the European Court of Justice.

I'll have a look at the numbers, but in no way am I a proper statistician.

What aim does dragging this out serve?

A poison chalice to Johnson who has persistently eyed up his leadership and a scorched earth for the country for not following his lead on Remain.

Also, by leaving it longer, parliament is in a better position to override the result of a referendum and making a formal declaration that we're not going to leave after all.

Of course companies are leaving, investment is leaving, people are already applying for citizenship elsewhere.

It takes a long time, and a huge effort, to build a prosperous future, and that's not possible if you're in a country that has political uncertainty, economic uncertainty. How can one make a decision for the next 10 or 20 years, when as far as you can see with certainty is 3 months?

Hell, right now... Europe looks incredibly stable compared to the UK. We've had the Scotland referendum, a shock general election, and this EU referendum in a matter of years... we look anything but stable. Europe on the other hand, whilst each country appears unstable close-up, the big picture of Europe is incredibly stable.

Even if we don't exit, it will take decades just to recover from this.

The brexitteers never expected to win.
They were hoping for an acceptable loss,
that would enable any PM so minded to negotiate a 'better' deal than Cameron
got earlier this year, ('thin gruel').
Now we're leaving, the 'informal discussions' banned by Juncker,
were supposed to be a means to getting some compromises * from the EU
so the various lying Vote Leave politicians could appease their followers.

( * Working Time Directive overturned,
cancelling of Freedom of Movement, but full access to the EU).

But the Club are saying, 'You voted Leave, so leave'.

there's still plenty to play out though, both here and in Europe,

Drag it out long enough and you run up against the fixed term parliament coming to an end in the middle of negotiations.

This would need it to be delayed until at least ~May 2018 given the next planned GE is on 7th May 2020. Very unlikely. (If it gets delayed that long then it's very unlikely to actually happen anyway.)

Fingers crossed then.

Why is Cameron refusing to start the process?

Triggering Article 50 cannot be reversed, and it means that the clock is ticking against the UK.

This puts the UK in a very weak negotiating position.

Negotiating while still a member gives the UK a relative position of strength.

Sure, but companies, people, investors... they make these decisions daily, in huge numbers. Those decisions, since Thursday, are no longer based on sound long-term assumptions. But if you need to make those decisions, it's now safer to make them based on a different countries' political and economic stability.

Pull the trigger and we could find ourselves out 24 mo later with nothing conceded or agreed.

This.

And we're at the mercy of an EU that we have probably given the itch to, if farridge's speech is any indication of the future.

The EU want to force the UK into making the decision as soon as possible because this country is in a very weak bargaining position at the moment. Financial problems, beginnings of civil unrest, lack of leadership (and coherent opposition), etc.

It can try and bluff and bluster it's way: "the council expects..." but all it takes is the UK representatives (not Farage, but people like Cameron and Lord Hill had he not resigned) to say "Until we actually enact Article 50 you must continue to include the UK in all discussions."

The EU can refuse to begin formal or informal exit negotiations with the UK until Article 50 is enacted (but it will probably eventually start to have these anyway, despite saying it won't), but it can't refuse to do the usual business with the UK in the mean time.

We haven't been here before.

The EU could just put business on hold. It's stable and functioning better than we are right now.

@Chalfie its fairly simple stuff, I just want to make sure that what I've done looks right.

I'll send you a Google sheets link once I'm home, as I can't get at it from here.

Just looking at shifting populations and voting patterns and when, based on what we know, the vote might have gone the other way, assuming nothing had changed except voters dying, and more voters becoming 18.

Keanu Reeves is currently being shown around Portcullis House by Tory MP Nadhim Zahawi. Not sure what this means.

I don't see the formal negotiations taking two years.
Coming winter, on a still night,
(with all our turbines quiet),
EdF announce some routine maintenance on the 2GW interconnector 'tween France and UK.
Some of us lived through the other Miner's Strike
and did homework by candlelight, TV off at 10.30pm.
How many brextards are going to enjoy sitting in the dark
with no 'net access to vent on the Daily Mail website?

For reference:
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Never knowingly confused with an expert, Francis Maude,
suggested, during a fuel shortage, storing petrol at home,
(against most peoples Household insurance).
Will he, or his successor, 'Toryspokesmansaid',
suggest storing electricity in a long extension lead?