EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

I reckon Alex and Michael were installed as trusted lieutenants to stop Farage and his absurd far right disciples gaining any kind of valid charge for complete control.

You read it here first.

We've been played. They just didn't realise that there were so many disgruntled voters. Collectively, we weren't supposed to vote leave.

It's demonstrated how the fed up electorate are.

The alternative to the Conservative/LibDem coalition was no coalition at all. I can't understand the fear of a minority government in this country.

A moderating influence? When? On the Bedroom Tax? On the austerity policies that Osborne enacted?

And of course he had an alternative. He could've bargained far harder with the Tories, like making PR mandatory, or he could've negotiated with Labour.

This is how I see it panning out.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2016/06/are-conservatives-getting-ready-learn-love-eea

The idea that Clegg had no options is wrong. He was played by Cameron. Probably one more reason why Cameron just assumed he could get away with this referendum.

We wouldn't have to be taxed more for that if companies like Vodaphone weren't just let off paying any corporation tax.

Sweepstake on date that official Article 50 notification is submitted by the UK?

1. Greenbank : Never (well, not in the next 3 years anyway)
   

Sweepstake on date that official Article 50 notification is submitted by the UK?

1 Greenbank : Never (well, not in the next 3 years anyway)
2 Ramsaye : General Election first

Sweepstake on date that official Article 50 notification is submitted by the UK?

1 Greenbank : Never (well, not in the next 3 years anyway)
2 Ramsaye : General Election first
3 senorB : 1st Jan

Sweepstake on date that official Article 50 notification is submitted by the UK?

1 Greenbank : Never (well, not in the next 3 years anyway)
2 Ramsaye : General Election first
3 senorB : 1st Jan
4 EB : 1 April

Here's an interesting fact: The country has lost more money since the OUT result than it could ever save from not paying into the EU.

1 Greenbank : Never (well, not in the next 3 years anyway)
2 Ramsaye : General Election first
3 senorB : 1st Jan
4 EB : 1 April
5 Damo: general election first, then by the end of the first term of parliament.

Sweepstake on date that official Article 50 notification is submitted by the UK?

1 Greenbank : Never (well, not in the next 3 years anyway)
2 Ramsaye : General Election first
3 senorB : 1st Jan
4 EB : 1 April
5 neil: Boxing Day 2016
6: Damo: general election first, then by the end of the first term of parliament.

Sweepstake on date that official Article 50 notification is submitted by the UK?

1 Greenbank : Never (well, not in the next 3 years anyway)
2 Ramsaye : General Election first
3 senorB : 1st Jan
4 EB : 1 April
5 neil: Boxing Day 2016
6: Damo: general election first, then by the end of the first term of parliament.
7: TW : Another referendum first, then never

What will come first - article 50 or a second IndeRef for Scotland? Will one trigger the other?

This is such a clusterfuck it's so difficult to try to imagine what's going to happen, but:

If there's a general election I can only imagine parliament will be sent back with a strong remain mandate. Then there is a good chance of it never being invoked, unless there is serious pressure from the EU.

Unless the PLP decide that their hatred of Corbyn trumps any all else. Which I wouldn't bet against at this point.

The former. The SNP don't have a referendum mandate until something actually happens, arguably. Plus they won't be able to negotiate their own entry into the EU without England negotiating its exit.

Unless the PLP decide that their hatred of Corbyn trumps any all else. Which I wouldn't bet against at this point.

The PLP have to do everything that they possibly can to get Corbyn out before Chillcot, otherwise he's going to stand before Parliament and reveal what Blair and his allies did.

The PLP would eat their own children if it prevents this, or at least it looks that way at the moment.

Here's an interesting fact: The country has lost more money since the OUT result than it could ever save from not paying into the EU.

Temporary though isn't it. The stock market will eventually recover and that money will return. Meanwhile many people who aren't on the edge are callously thinking "Ooh, cheap pension units".

On a more serious note, how much of the £160m/week net contribution to the EU will end up going to be spent on increased interest payments on the £1.6tn now that the UK's credit ratings have been downgraded (and will be downgraded again) when that credit gets to be renewed...

1% of £1.6tn = £16bn so a 0.5% rise in borrowing rates wipes out that £8bn net EU contribution...

You guys with positives hopes that article 50 will never be triggered should have a better look to european news about the european leaders talking... I hope to be wrong though.

1 Greenbank : Never (well, not in the next 3 years anyway)
2 Ramsaye : General Election first
3 senorB : 1st Jan
4 EB : 1 April
5 neil: Boxing Day 2016
6: Damo: general election first, then by the end of the first term of parliament.
7: TW : Another referendum first, then never
8: Yark: 31st October 2016

JW: Election first. I'd be very pleasantly surprised if after that there's to be no Brexit and we get a proper Conservative and Labour party. OR even better, new parties but FPP fucks that up.

(is that a flying pig?)

You guys with positives hopes that article 50 will never be triggered should have a better look to european news about the european leaders talking... I hope to be wrong though.

The Jack of Kent article is interesting, and makes the point that whatever the other EU leaders want to happen they cannot, in any way, force us to issue the article 50.

They cannot just officially, maybe!

Unless UK is making a clear statement that they have not intention of leaving the EU whatsoever, taking the burden of violating their internal democracy expressed with a referendum, and loosing the face again, the rest of the EU government will do a hell of a pressure on top of the existing one, they have their own interests to take care...

As @Dammit says, they can talk all they like, but until the British Government formally notifies them of their intention to leave under the terms of Article 50, they can't force the issue.