Whether the article 50 bomb gets dropped tomorrow, in three months, or never, the situation is a pretty well engineered land-grab inside the conservative party.
The impression I got yesterday is that the Brexiteers may have hoped to win, but definitely didn't expect Cameron to make a dive for the emergency door so quickly. They were expecting him to carry on long enough to at least start the brexit negotiations, and with him gone they really don't have a clue how to proceed. Cameron could have negotiated from the position of "look guys, I tried, I was on your side but my country has spoken" and built on the concessions he had already got.
With someone new taking over, those concessions are probably off the table, so the negotiation is back to square one. Going into that meeting as someone who actively campaigned for exit does not do one's bargaining position any favours.
In the long term, the exit agreement is likely to be largely similar to the concessions Cameron already got, which were derided as not good enough, but it is hard to see anyone coming up with anything markedly better without sacrificing some necessary trade.
It looks as if we will end up in a similar position to now, but with the potential for Scotland gone, the Labour Party demoralised by the loss of a vast number of their core supporters to UKIP, and a resurgent Thatcherite, Eurosceptic wing of the tory party in charge.
That part of the party can't really believe its luck. They've shown they don't like big bureaucracy and unelected officials, and are good at judging and influencing the popular mood on such matters.
Many of them are on record saying that the the NHS "needs reform", and have friends in the private medical insurance industry.
This is not going to be fun.
Whether the article 50 bomb gets dropped tomorrow, in three months, or never, the situation is a pretty well engineered land-grab inside the conservative party.
The impression I got yesterday is that the Brexiteers may have hoped to win, but definitely didn't expect Cameron to make a dive for the emergency door so quickly. They were expecting him to carry on long enough to at least start the brexit negotiations, and with him gone they really don't have a clue how to proceed. Cameron could have negotiated from the position of "look guys, I tried, I was on your side but my country has spoken" and built on the concessions he had already got.
With someone new taking over, those concessions are probably off the table, so the negotiation is back to square one. Going into that meeting as someone who actively campaigned for exit does not do one's bargaining position any favours.
In the long term, the exit agreement is likely to be largely similar to the concessions Cameron already got, which were derided as not good enough, but it is hard to see anyone coming up with anything markedly better without sacrificing some necessary trade.
It looks as if we will end up in a similar position to now, but with the potential for Scotland gone, the Labour Party demoralised by the loss of a vast number of their core supporters to UKIP, and a resurgent Thatcherite, Eurosceptic wing of the tory party in charge.
That part of the party can't really believe its luck. They've shown they don't like big bureaucracy and unelected officials, and are good at judging and influencing the popular mood on such matters.
Many of them are on record saying that the the NHS "needs reform", and have friends in the private medical insurance industry.
This is not going to be fun.