EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

I left that too late, cleverly

I didn't vote in the last two general elections (since being old enough to vote), on the premise I didn't want to be responsible for making a bad decision, and happier keeping my mouth shut (didn't vote can't complain).

With this one I'm not so sure. It isn't black or white or red or blue, or yellow or green or whatever. More brown vs beige.

There was an 84.6% turnout at the Scottish referendum, far in excess of the 66% turnout (UK wide) and even the 71% turnout (in Scotland) at the last general election.

I haven't seen any predictions or analysis on probable turnout, but it feels to me like a high turnout situation given the media saturation and the importance of the question.

Hang on, all this shit and it's not legally binding?

Parliamentary sovereignty, innit. Governments can pass any legislation, other than that which binds it's successor. Or itself, for that matter.

I'm pretty worried what will happen tomorrow. If we leave and due to a lack of votes because people didn't bother voting I'll be furious. If we leave because people think that it will fix this so called immigration issue I'll be furious. basically if we leave ill be furious.

My gf's sister said she might not vote because she doesn't want to vote wrong as she doesn't understand it. I told her to read up about it as its the single most important choice she will have to make.

It is cut and dried, black and white. The consequences of an out vote would be horrific for all of us.

It would provoke a constitutional crisis

How so?

and civil unrest.

/Everything/ causes civil unrest, to some degree or other. In fact, when are we ever /not/ at civil unrest?

Vote Tories out at the next election.

"Doories." :)

No Doris jokes, please.

Leading economists keen to get ignored again:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/eu-referendum-nobel-prize-winning-economists-warn-of-long-term-brexit-damage

hnnng

Quick! He's suffered a massive Bushism and needs a correctly-used semicolon! Stat!

Good article.

They;re They;re.

Turnout is historically higher in Scotland, a sense of civic duty maybe?

I think the received wisdom is that the higher the turnout, the more chance Remain wins.

Were they part of the same collection of economists who failed to see the global financial meltdown coming?

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/06/a-fed-up-man-has-taken-out-a-full-page-ad-in-the-metro-to-make-his-point-about-the-eu-referendum/

Well I just did two hours putting Remain leaflets through doors with Lewis MacDonald MSP and Aberdeen Labour. Reassuring to know that Aberdeen will be #remain at least based on doorstep vox pop

They;re They;re.

Beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep

A constitutional crisis is a situation that a legal system's
constitution or other basic principles of operation appear unable to
resolve; it often results in a breakdown in the orderly operation of
government.

We have no precedent for dealing with the Commons directly opposing the democratically expressed will of the British people. Everyone would be improvising and the spectrum of outcomes would range from the Commons backing down, to a general election, to a second referendum, to the Queen acting in concert with a minority government and the armed forces to suspend the Commons and implement the 'will' of the British people. I can imagine the press cheerleading the last option from day 1. Being a sort of deferential, non-confrontational people, I imagine the Commons would quite quickly calculate the possibilities and decide that backing down was the best option. I freely concede I have no idea what would happen, and nor do you, which is the point.

On civil unrest, I'm not sure I go along with your assertion that everything causes 'civil unrest', but let's not quibble. In this instance I can see people tearing up town centers and government buildings, attacking immigrants and other minority groups. Most of them have been practicing in France for the last few weeks anyway. Who would order the police and armed forces onto the streets to prevent them and under what authority?

Scottish referendum of 1978, I think. Scots voted to devolve, Westminster had quietly put in a caveat about turnout, so could ignore the result. Civil unrest didn't happen.

I'm a pessimist and hopefully wrong on the potential for civil unrest, but it feels a bit like a powder keg. We're discussing several remote possibilities anyway.

Also feel I missed an opportunity to make a joke about how old you are here. It's an interesting precedent that I wasn't aware of.

Were they part of the same collection of economists who failed to see the global financial meltdown coming?

http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-referendum-nouriel-roubini-warns-brexit-could-tip-uk-into-recession-2016-6

https://mobile.twitter.com/annpettifor/status/703533755139543041

Here's thinking aloud on a single point in the arguments:

Say I have a first class honours degree in the arts from one of the world's best rated universities, yet my job prospects have been eroded through shrinking funding toward the arts, my debt is very very large as a result of cost of education and cost of living.

I have considered to migrate, and I could find a job of some kind elsewhere in the world.

The long term effect of a 'leave' vote could be a significant drop in the value of the pound.

So, relatively, why shouldn't I vote to leave the EU?

Wouldn't this in fact benefit from a relative fall in the value of my debt versus an alternate currency in a country that may offer me work be it in the arts or otherwise.

Ta

A constitutional crisis is a situation that a legal system's
constitution or other basic principles of operation appear unable to
resolve; it often results in a breakdown in the orderly operation of
government.

The legal system can resolve it though - Parliament is sovereign, and can pass / not pass whichever laws they like.

In this case, they could just /not/ pass the appropriate legislation to extricate the UK from the multitude of instruments making us members of the EU.

Irrespectively, the referendum result will not be binding. Per current constitutional convention.

It might cause a political crisis, sure. But not a constitutional one.