EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

They recon that Brexit will win

based on what?

I honestly don't know whether it was from polling or from personal experience of campaigning, but they were absolutely definite. They said that the Brexit side would force a vote of no confidence in Cameron to try and get Boris in, but that ultimately it might force a general election.

I don't think they are right. The most accurate predictions in the last few election have been the bookies. Ladbrokes have gone from roughly 50/50 a week or so ago to this...
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/sports-central/uk-eu-referendum/

deleted, just in case

Well he can't possibly know for sure. I hope he is just a bedwetter.

Sounds like one of the shower of bedwetters that make up the so called opposition. Meanwhile in the real world the polls show it is razor tight, with good reason to hope that undecideds break remain. Remain by five points and Corbyn gone by September would be a fantastic outcome.

Imho only if he's replaced by someone with proper labour principles that does draw votes.

Who may that be btw out of interest? :)

in the real world the polls

Surely these two ideas should never occur in the same sentence? :)

@Bad_Science I really hope he's just pessimistic but it doesn't bode well if those campaigning or are close to those who are have lost hope.

Elements of both sides seem pretty despondent about the campaign, to be honest.

I did write a much longer answer, but my job is to be impartial, so I'll shut up now until it's all over.

In terms of publically visible voices with sufficient ambition, the obvious choices would be Burnham or Cooper.

When are postal votes counted?

In terms of competence, neither of those would be the obvious choices.

Town - "In" signs and stickers all over the place, at least one person at about half of the tables in the cafe had an "in" badge.
Country - not a single "in" poster to be seen. "Leave" posters all over the place.

I am just praying that there's enough of you London twats.

There's a leave poster in my local area. Yes, leave will do miracles for NI working class areas!

Unless you're one of these idealists who thinks this will steep up the revolution. It won't.
And if it does, there's a long queue for some I'd say.

Doesn't surprise me, when I came to vote some guy went "I just tick two boxes!"

The only party with two candidates there is the DUP, who fuck the working classes and are corrupt to the hilt. That's putting it mildly. They also want to leave cos...they're stupid arseholes and they think unionism must come with a faux suck up to Westminster nationalism rather than be a proud identify by itself. [but whatabout...yes I've words for SF nationalism too]

If a working class person votes for them, they clearly haven't done any research. So yes, no surprise at the Leave posters.

Let them eat flags!

Well I'm in the sticks out here, and although normally a trad Tory area with blue signs in every farmer's field, there are very few Leave posters anywhere and every local house that has posters up, mine included, is for Remain.

Good Eroica for you BTW? I had a great ride but mixed feelings overall.

I agree on Cooper but I've warmed to Burnham since his Hillsborough speech. However, competence doesn't win votes.

Meanwhile in the real world the polls show it is razor tight

If you're confident of the polls being representative, and a razor tight finish being certain, there are good odds being laid for that - up to 6/1 for a 50-55% leave vote (2.8/1 for a remain vote of 50-55%)

^This, seems that the atmosphere is very different in London to that in the provinces. Here in Northamptonshire and most other counties I've been through lately with a mix of rural villages and scary market towns there would be no chance of complacency whatsoever if you're in the remain camp. Red Leave posters everywhere and an overwhelming fervent support for leave, both from the farmers who feel they're being threatened by unfair subsidies to mainland producers and are a bit racist, and the townsfolk who are scared to death that there's a bunch of central and eastern europeans taking the jobs they couldn't be arsed competing for and drinking Tyskie in the park. And they're a bit racist.

Work just asked me to do a very long day visit to a client site in Wales on Thurs, which would have involved missing the polls. No chance of that, friend, not when things are so close.

Also, Wales...

What odds can you get on remain winning greater than 55% share?

But is it pure racism? It can just be fear of the unknown. Areas with more immigration, eg they SEE immigrants right in front of them are less likely to vote UKIP.

Populism feeds on fear and it's a natural instinct.

(it's all getting a bit Videodrome...using base instincts to fry the higher brain areas...)

The same time as all of the other votes, Friday evening, starting around 10:15ish.

Verification & counting of Postal Votes may already be on going, but that's just checking that the signature on the outside of the envelope matches the one held, and that the dates of birth match. And counting them at this point is just sensible.

There have been issues previously with the ballot papers being too thin, and observers (generally from the political parties) giving out 'feelings' on how things are going from the postal voting. This has generally been nipped in the bud by pointing out it's a specific electoral offence.

Ok, thanks for the explanation - a friend of a friend who works for the conservative remain campaign reckons that 'early indications' are for Brexit but my friend wasn't sure what she meant by that. We were wondering if it was to do with postal voting...
Incidentally (and anecdotally), many of the people working on the conservative remain campaign are apparently going to vote out!

But is it pure racism?

Depends how you define it. Its proper use relates to superiority / inferiority of particular races. However, that depends on how you define races. The term does seem to have shifted in its use.

I think for the most part xenofobia or prejudice would be a better description.

That said we do have a staggering amount of racism under the surface.

Beckham has waded into the fray...AND HE'S IN!