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@Bad_Science
I honestly don't know whether it was from polling or from personal experience of campaigning, but they were absolutely definite. They said that the Brexit side would force a vote of no confidence in Cameron to try and get Boris in, but that ultimately it might force a general election.
I don't think they are right. The most accurate predictions in the last few election have been the bookies. Ladbrokes have gone from roughly 50/50 a week or so ago to this...
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/sports-central/uk-eu-referendum/