-
Parties in favour of remaining: Conservative (surprisingly, although membership split)
Having the membership split means that they will win, irrespective of the outcome of the vote.
NotThamesWater-
If Exit win, we're stuck with an entire Parliament that wants to stay, apart from a few rabid fucknuts who will tear the Tories to pieces. There'll have to be another general election by the end of the year, and lord knows what this lunatic electorate will do then.
-
It also means that they will lose, irrespective of the outcome of the vote.
Actually they stand to lose a bit more with Brexit than Bremain.
With Brexit the leadership will be called into question which sets up a challenge to the position of PM right on the anti-node of the election cycle. Boris seems to be played as the automatic successor but I don't think he has enough internal support. Either way a change in PM pretty much demands a General Election. There's also a risk of defection to both the left and the right weakening the power base in the commons.
With Bremain, it will still be close and there's the risk of defection again but, this time, only to the right. Not enough to question the majority but enough to curtail the current party momentum. The leadership won't be in question but given where we are in the divide, Cameron's authority has already been eroded with means the party's authority has been eroded. If a voice like Blair were in the opposition, Labour could make this a gravy train all the way to the next election. Alas the only cheap boon to the Conservatives is Corbyn.
In reality, the only people who stand to win with this referendum are the parties to the right of the Conservatives. They'll finally have a number to work with, a big one. A number that they can apply to any argument that they care to make. Even if Bremain gives them a minority, they'll be able to play the numbers to make it a majority of British people.
kl
The_Seldom_Killer
you're not wrong - however the fact that immigration fears have been whipped up by these brexit tits as a way of diverting attention from disastrous tory policies and providing a lowest common denominator a narrative upon which shitstains like gove and johnson can hitch their cuntwagon has made the debate somewhat less rational than it ought to be.