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It's a good way to look at it, although the net effect of this vote is the same.
It's a very different prospect to the common market entry that started the process of membership. If the EU had to lay out it's offering now with a potential roadmap of countries joining and tighter future integration (i.e. Federal Europe) would it be popular?
The debate would probably have less negativity attached to staying out as we would have a complete understanding of what that entails. Fear of the unknown is the major sticking point for all the leave arguments. Fear of the unknown will probably determine the outcome.
Airhead
Someone asked me today, if we were outside the EU and this referendum was for joining, would I want in? Interesting slant on the in/out question.