Dammit-
It sounds like we're not a million miles apart in pace.
I followed Hal Higdon Marathon 3 mileage pretty closely. I was already happy with HM distance so I kept the long runs at ~13 miles until the plan caught up with me, then followed the long runs as they progressed. I pushed the long runs out slightly toward the end, aiming for 20 miles instead of 18 and 22 instead of 20. But my knee started playing up so I probably ended up doing the mileage they recommend in the end anyway.
So rarely more than 35 miles a week, but it was a consistent 30 miles a week, give or take.
Started out with I'd guess a 20.30 5k time (down from 19.45 a year before) and I my long run pace was anywhere from 8 to 8.30 min miles.
I told people I wanted to go under 3:30, actually wanted to be closer to 3:20. Did Paddock Wood a few weeks out and knocked the HM time from 1:38 to 1:29, then ended up getting 3:15 (1:35 and 1:40 HM splits). Then my next run a fortnight after was a club 5k which I got 19mins on.If I put 19 mins into the RW predictor then it predicts me a 3:01 marathon which I think it optimistic. 3:10 maybe, as I had some knee concerns (and a visit to the loo).
If I get a place for next year then I'd aim for a GFA time
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I was doing 25-30 miles/week and my legs fell apart at 18 miles in both my last long run (22 miles) and the marathon itself. Both times I ended up doing walk/jog to get to the end.
That marathon calculator gives me a predicted time of 4h14 based the appropriate 5k time, I was on track for 4h45 until that 18 mile mark and ended up with a 5h07.
Most of this is due to a combination of two things:
- not enough miles in the legs (I'd hope to be up to at least 40 miles/week for next time - can't do that now on top of swim/cycle training and family life)
- being 10-15kg heavier than I'd like to be
- not enough miles in the legs (I'd hope to be up to at least 40 miles/week for next time - can't do that now on top of swim/cycle training and family life)
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A VERY rough rule-of-thumb that I try to adhere to. Weekly mileage = to event length. Subsequently I have never been adventurous enough to enter a 100 miler!!
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As others said 30 mpw not a bad place to end up, was where I was at when I last ran a Marathon.
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duncs
Greenbank
IusedtobecalledKipsy
rhb
The shorter the distance used to predict a longer event the more likelihood it'll be a fair bit out.
Slower 5km × 8.5 times will be challenging without miles in legs.
Given the v.limited info above I'd suggest running with 4hr pacer not 3.30 and push on in last 10km only if legs are feeling up to it.