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You can basically break candidates down into four groups.
1) Major Party Candidates - for whom a) 5% of the 1st choice vote is a give and b) it would be politically damaging to not run
2) Exposure Candidates - running for political parties who want to use the campaigning process as a platform to promote their political party's agenda/ideology. This includes parties like Green, UKIP, BNP, Britain First, Respect
3) Single Issue Candidates - running to get discussion of their important issues included in the campaigning process as a platform to promote their viewpoint on that one subject. This includes parties like CISTA and WEP
4) Independent Candidates - usually a combination of 2 & 3 or standing to offer voters a protest vote or None of The Above alternative.Some candidates can be assured of hitting that 5% mark such as UKIP or Green so will get their 10k back. However, that will probably pale compared to the cost and effort of campaigning. As minority parties they will consider the returns worth the cost. They don't reasonably expect to win but are putting up a candidate to make sure issues they find important are discussed and, in the event of a collapse of major party campaigns, they can stand to make significant gains that they can retain some of the next time round. More importantly, that campaign figurehead makes the AM candidates a lot more appealing/votable without having to do the groundwork of getting them recognised locally. For instance, support a particular party nationally, your AM vote will match your Mayoral vote where possible regardless of whether you actually know who any of the AM candidates are and how they reflect their party's policies. This mostly serves parties like Green and UKIP.
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The_Seldom_Killer
I do wonder sometimes about the minority and independent candidates. I mean is it like xfactor levels of deluded-ness where they really think they've got talent?
to be a candidate you have to have supporters all over London (33 signatures from each borough) plus £10k deposit. the deposit is forfeit if you get under 5% of the first preference vote. While not impossible, it's equally not a light undertaking.