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I think RVV is harder for teams to control than most races. You can be well positioned and get stuck behind a crash, rain affects it more than other races etc. Sure you can get stuck behind a crash in other races, but the roads aren't as narrow.
I think it's a good analogy.
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I wasn't picking apart the analogy, although the Grand National is shit.
It is both a hard race and an easy race to control, because of the narrowness of the parcours. But I still think if you don't have a 5 star favourite then getting strong riders up the road in advance of the denouement is the best tactic.
andyp
It's like most bike races isn't it, i.e. we know who is likely to be a potential winner, we just don't know how the race will unfold and who will be the strongest or canniest.
The final two climbs means that the strongest will go clear, so if you don't have a rider who will be able to hang on to the likes of Cancellara and Sagan on the Paterberg, you need to anticipate and get someone up the road. For me, that means the likes of EQS and Sky need to make it a tactical race, getting their second tier riders in breaks in the last 80 kms.
Personally I think Cancellara will win, it's his last Ronde, he's on form and he's the type of rider who's not going to want any regrets afterwards.