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Ahh...that kind of mud. Yes - if you don't have good clearance and tyres that will shed it then it's going to collect on the chainstays and work towards your chainring.
It gums up the ring so that the chain is pushed off the teeth. Narrow wide or not, your chain is coming off, at best, and at worst your derailure is going to be forcibly removed :)
Howard
Think a chain keeper would make much difference if you don't have much mud clearance out back? Or perhaps it's just another thing likely to get snapped off?
I ask out of curiosity because @spotter dropped his chain two or three times this weekend on totally flat ground, despite running a narrow-wide Superstar components chain ring and a clutched rear derailleur.
Granted it was super muddy and very leafy, but my Inbred was trouble free running the same rear Nobby Nic tyre, same Zee rear derailleur, Hope narrow-wide ring up front. The only difference seemed to be clearance; I have tons whereas the Cannondale doesn't.