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There were a lot of holes in the corners of the bellows, which I've sealed. It's a strange sillouette - obviously fabric, a vertical edge on the right side of the frame, and a similar horizontal edge (out of focus, about 5% up from the bottom) at 90 degrees. Too precise for a tear or a hole.
Old folders are so cheap I may as well just try my luck with another one from ebay. Not having focus indication is the only drag, so it's a sunny day camera only.
It's probably because of holes in the bellows (I've always found the effect varies from shot to shot), take it in a dark room and shine a light through the back. You can just cover over any holes with gaffer tape/electrical tape.
The shutter is metal blades and imo that doesn't look like a result of them being damaged or sticking.