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Nato is a mutual defence pact, so basically if Russia invaded Poland, the rest of the alliance would be obliged to come to Poland's defence. This obviously raises the risk of nuclear war with the U.S., which the Russians don't want either. So they don't invade Poland. That's the logic, and thus far it has worked. The Russians don't seem mental enough to want to test it.
Countries outside Nato, however, Russia fucks with because Nato doesn't want to run the risk of nuclear war either. So they tut from afar when Russia invades Georgia, and when Russia annexes Crimea they impose financial sanctions that don't threaten the energy trade with Europe and refuse to send Ukraine lethal aid.
That's the basis of Europe's security architecture. Yeah it's fucked up. But that's the reality of it.
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h2o
@deleted
If Russia decided to invade Poland do you think the States or Nato for that matter would do anything apart from tut loudly from a safe location? They're obviously not going to nuke them, and their missile defence isn't going to stop a few hundred thousand tanks rolling in either... Given weak Nato response to Russian aggression in Chechnya, Ossetia and the Ukraine what's the value of futile pretence? You've got to wonder if what's happening in Ukraine would be going on if Nato wasn't flopping their cock out-Russia already had it's naval base and Ukraine's been a corrupt sinkhole since forever so it's not like it would get EU membership (well, given the creative accounting that's been done to get Romania and Greece in...) so other than the cheap gas pipeline...
Putin's a mental yes, but he's mostly just projecting a political image to control his domestic power-a large aspect of which lies in perceived indemnity against western threats to Russian statehood and trying to mask the shitness of their economy with angry rhetoric so I don't think a need to piss on the proverbial beehive with missiles you'd never dare fire...