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  • I suppose that I'd be inclined to agree with the majority of that...

    It seems to me that there are too many people on the planet already, and that although the rate of growth is declining, the idea that global populations might top out at 10-11 billion genuinely makes me shudder. Based on current projections, the contribution of the UK to the global trends is comparatively small, however population density in the UK is already boggling and can be expected to increase by 20% before it tops out.

    Against that background, my initial reaction is to feel sympathetic to policies that hint at limiting this growth.

    I guess the critical questions therefore are:
    Will the policy be effective at delivering a desired outcome?
    Will it deliver the desired outcome in a fair and equitable way?
    What are the likely unintended consequences of the policy and are they acceptable?

    In this case, and on deeper reflection, the answer to the first two questions is probably not. The existence (or lack thereof) of child benefit probably plays zero part in affecting a couple's decision to have another child, and even if it did, limiting child benefit to the first two children would have a disproportionate impact on poorer families for whom each additional child would represent a proportionally greater drain on the family's finances.

    In fact, despite it's outward appearance, I suppose I'm not actually convinced that this policy was ever intended to have anything to do with wider issues of population. Certainly Osbourne didn't seem to couch it in those terms. As mentioned I suspect this was far more about finding budget savings wherever possible and the consequences be damned.

  • issues of population

    The population size of developed countries isn't the problem imo. It's the level of resource consumption and more importantly the aspirations of developing countries to reach that same level of consumption.

    But obviously no one here wants to adjust their life style and no one is going to tell the developing world that they can't have a better one.

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