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Yeah I think this is a big part of it. I felt tired, and despite putting out near identical power (AP/NP) to my previous go on that course, I was 15w down on the SB power that I set on Wednesday. I think that the tiredness, and the associated low motivation meant that I was lazy and allowed my power slump on the difficult sections of the course while I still managed to pushed on a bit during the easy sections.
Slacking off in the hard times is exactly the opposite of what I should have been doing.
ewanmac
Average power doesn't tell you where you delivered the power. You might've pushed harder into the wind or hills last time and slacked off more elsewhere.