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I would say the open market sorts out what some people are willing to pay, and that that is definitely not the 'value' of the property. How can the market efficiently sort it through people making offers on houses/ flats, all of which have had their starting price set by the same guesswork?
(Not digging at you, just my perspective)
Cupcakes
That's basically it - look at comparable sales and a rough % increase over time and make a guess. For open market sales the market sorts out the true value, otherwise the methods you describe above are as good as it gets.
The fact that you and all three agents were within 6% shows it's quite easy to be fairly accurate.