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how well you keep the place and appeal to their humanity.
Good advice. @arup also, assuming you've been a low maintenance tenant, and fixed minor issues when they've popped up yourself, make sure you make the most of this. They could get someone new in, but then end up having to fix everything up and tend to the property more than they are now: appeal to their need for an easy life.
Howard
£500 a month is big money, to both you and the landlord. Their thought process will probably be similar to yours - that you've been a good tenant and they don't want to lose you, but in their eyes they are currently subsiding your housing by £6,000 a year and that's a lot to give to anyone.
So long as you're a calm character, invite the landlord round, show them how much you love living there, how well you keep the place and appeal to their humanity. If you can negotiate a smaller rise - half way maybe - you'll still be getting 'good' value and the lodger should cover the extra rent.