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@Sainsburys_Ed
Volume wise you aren't far off what I had done ytd by the time I did brighton (according to strava and bearing in mind that cycling and swimming do factor into the picture here) and your previous marathon best is better than I achieved, vdot suggests close is possible but then my 3k vdot times suggest I should be able to do a 2:50 (which based on yesterday I think is more possible but if definitely need specific run training to get me there) and I can't imagine any runner begrudging a valiant but failed sub 3 hour attempt for very long!
What I'm saying is give it a go, but only if in your heart of hearts your going to have the conviction to dig REALLY deep when I gets hard!