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do you think you've put enough run miles in to do this,
Not sure. According to TP, I've run 650km (68hrs) in the last 180days... that works out at only about 25km/week which is very low. However, my training has been predominantly about IMWales, and my coach's strategy has deliberately avoided long runs (nothing over 21k) in favour of gaining cardio vascular endurance on the bike (I've averaged about 9hrs/week including S/B/R and weights). The majority of my runs have been either c.12-15km fartlek sessions or recovery pace.
Do your recent VDOT tests suggest its clost if you put them in the Attackpoint predictor,
Not sure. My Vdot has remained essentially the same over the 3 tests I've done since January (2mile/3.3km test - Jan = 11:50, Feb = 11:52, Apr = 11:50). This gives me a VDOT of 53 and thus a 'predicted' marathon time of 3:01:35 (4:18/km pace). That's not far off a sub 3hr marathon which is encouraging, but I'm not sure how accurately you can predict marathon times from a 3.2km test, especially when I haven't done any long runs. I certainly haven't held 4:18 pace for a sustained period during training, and it sounds like an incredibly daunting prospect. That said, I'm not sure I would expect to either since my VDOT tests were all calculated on road, but 99% of my training is off road. Possibly my best run recently was a 21km effort where I held 5:00/km over a slightly lumpy, off-road course with mixed terrain, but during that run I was aiming to hold 'easy pace', it's just that I probably had to work a little bit harder to hold that pace given the terrain. Still felt pretty comfortable though..
and finally what the downside if you try, blow up and end up limping over the line in ~4 hours...?
I'd like for that not to happen. I got my slot on the basis of being selected for my university cross country club and as such my run will count as part of the BUCS competition, and also the Oxford Vs Cambridge match. In the case of the latter, only the top 3 runners from each club count and so I'm unlikely to be a factor but still... Also, the fact that I was actively selected means that other runners failed to get a slot at my expense and so I'd like to justify my selection with a good run.
All these should be answered by my coach, but yeah... AWOL.
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ewanmac
wow, kudos for even considering a sub 3 a go, do you think you've put enough run miles in to do this, and do your recent VDOT tests suggest its clost if you put them in the Attackpoint predictor, and finally what the downside if you try, blow up and end up limping over the line in ~4 hours...?
If the answers are all correct then go for it, if not then revise the target slightly and go for that. I only decided on my target on the Tuesday before the marathon...