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@ewanmac
@Sainsburys_Ed, Re. your wales bike split, I did have a little look and it was very informative, thank you.
My tentative plan/goal for Wales is to build up my FTP to c.300w. If I aim to ride the bike at 70% FTP then that gives me an average power of about 210w on the day. Using this link and if I assume my current estimated CdA is accurate at 0.27, that would give me an estimated bike split of around 6:18. If I aim to get my CdA down to 0.23 (still worse than poor according to Xav's chart) then that would give me an estimated time of 6:07 which I'd be pretty happy with!
The interesting thing looking at your bike on strava is that you rode with an average power of 164 and an NP of 194. I don't know which is better to use from a performance modelling perspective but using that website hints that NP is better (power=194 ~> Time =6:37 with average aeros). If that's true then you either went far harder on the bike than conventionally recommended, or your FTP was actually higher than you thought.
Either way I had fun thinking about it :-)