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Hmm, maybe http://www.mailgun.com/ had a temporary error.
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Makes sense. for the record this was the type of link that was failing http://email.microcosm.app/c/ZD02NjQzJmk9MjAxNTAyMTcxNzQzNDYuODI2NS4xOTUyNyU0MG1pY3JvY28uc20maD02NTNjODVlMDQ1ZGY3OGJmOTdhYmEyODM1Y2NlY2EyZiZsPWh0dHAlM0ElMkYlMkZ3d3cubGZnc3MuY29tJTJGdXBkYXRlcyUyRiZyPWpvZS5tYXJ0aW4lNDBnbWFpbC5jb20 a refresh of the same === no problem so yeah you are probably right.
Nope, every link from both types of email (replies to my own posts and any post to the forums I have notifications set up for).
It is now working, however.