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From what the organisers have posted on Facebook, Sumners Pond doesn't look too bad. There certainly isn't large areas of rutted ground caused by horses, which caused me a few moments yesterday. But away from the bridleways used by horses, conditions weren't too bad at all. I was only 15 seconds off my best time up one wooded climb I ride regularly, so there was grip to be had.
Took the cross bike to work as my lane was covered in black ice/un-rideable. Was great riding on the thick frozen grass (surprisingly fast) and along the South Downs Way until it started getting seriously rutted, it soon became impassable meaning I ran about a mile until I could remount for a fast grassy decent of death. At the bottom of the decent was large areas of frozen ruts caused by horses, was so sketchy. Probably the most stressful commute I've had, wasn't worth the cross practice. Way home was even worse, thick mud that rendered the tread on my tyres useless and left me with one gear to limp home! Sumners pond will be challenging if conditions stay as they are.