The UCI need to issue a warning before a team can be denied a World Tour license, a precedent set when they tried to deny Katusha a license back in 2012.
As far as I know, they've not yet done this so Astana will get their license.
As for Nibali leaving, no-one can afford him at this point of the year unless they can find additional sponsorship. He's on approx €3 million a year, plus you'll need to fund a handful of his domestiques, his mechanic, his siognier, his trainer, Slongo, etc. Plus he'd be in breach of contract.
The UCI need to issue a warning before a team can be denied a World Tour license, a precedent set when they tried to deny Katusha a license back in 2012.
As far as I know, they've not yet done this so Astana will get their license.
As for Nibali leaving, no-one can afford him at this point of the year unless they can find additional sponsorship. He's on approx €3 million a year, plus you'll need to fund a handful of his domestiques, his mechanic, his siognier, his trainer, Slongo, etc. Plus he'd be in breach of contract.