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  • Chalfie, the list of previous seasons I posted shows that any team topping the table after 12 games since 08/09 who had 29 points or lower did not win the league. So it seems 30 points and above is a point above which likelihood of a win increases exponentially. This has applied to Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea. I don't have the time to mine the data any further but you can go to premierleague.com and check out the premier league tables for any date in the year going back to 92.

    The point was not that Chelsea might win the league, it was that Liverpool are in a worse position than Chelsea have been in 20 years. If your point is Liverpool could make a come back from 14 points then you are perfectly suited to supporting Liverpool, although you will soon be entering the "Next year will be our year" phase.

    So you can rest easy, we are not talking about Chelsea doing well, we're still talking about Liverpool. And how badly they are doing....

  • My point was definitely not about Liverpool.
    If we can actually have a defining point of the season being 12 games and closest to 30 points, then maybe we can get closer to the sid Lowe described phenomenon of previous la liga seasons where the whole season could be settled in one match.
    #stopfootball

    In seriousness, I'm sure it might also be interesting to compare those 12 matches and determine the relative strengths of the teams played.

    @cliveo unfortunately I was only just alive in 75. I don't think I was aware of my existence. My earliest memory is of desperately trying to open the gate of our house in Belfast before I shat myself.

  • My point was definitely not about Liverpool. If we can actually have a
    defining point of the season being 12 games and closest to 30 points,
    then maybe we can get closer to the sid Lowe described phenomenon of
    previous la liga seasons where the whole season could be settled in
    one match.
    #stopfootball

    In seriousness, I'm sure it might also be interesting to compare those
    12 matches and determine the relative strengths of the teams played.

    @cliveo unfortunately I was only just alive in 75. I don't think I was
    aware of my existence. My earliest memory is of desperately trying to
    open the gate of our house in Belfast before I shat myself.

    The reason for choosing 12 games is not because this is a season defining moment. In truth, 38 games is the only real measure of a season because at that stage everything evens out and everyone has played the same teams home and away. It was because 12 games is precisely the number of games that have been played so far this season. The same table could be run after 13, 14 and probably most reliably 19 games and give a better indication of how things are going.

    As to the strengths of the teams played, it is true that we have not yet played Tottenham and Southampton. We haven't played Newcastle and Sunderland. Hull and Stoke are yet to come. Let's also not forget West Ham.

    We have, however, played Man U, Man City and Liverpool all away and Arsenal at home. Our first half of the season is tougher than our second half.

    The other point to be made is that, until last weekend, Chelsea have not been playing as well as they might. The first 25 minutes of the WBA game showed what they could do. Yesterday's match showed that it could be sustained for 90 minutes.

    I am looking forward to the challenge that is Derby.

    How curious that your first memory should be scatological.

  • In seriousness, I'm sure it might also be interesting to compare those 12 matches and determine the relative strengths of the teams played.

    If I had the data[1] (and I am looking for them for a separate project) that's what I'd look at. I'd add an extra column to the table for the total points obtained by the opposition in their first 12 games. That would go some way to working out the relative ease or difficulty of a team's first 12 games. I could then do similar tables for Liverpoo, Manyoo, Citeh and Arsenal.

    1. Date, kickoff time, teams, FT result is a minimum. Ideally scorers and goal times too, cards even better. Prem minimum, more leagues the better (including Scotchland). I'd prefer to buy it (£10 or so, I used to have access to something similar from a betting site years ago) but I am prepared to write HTML scrapers to get it from somewhere else (e.g. what was soccerbase).
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