Football

Traditionally Chelsea have a change of form in the winter months. I've always put it down to a higher number of players who grew up playing football on hard grass surfaces. When the ball stops bouncing and rolling as well the team struggles. Colder weather can lead to a higher rate of muscle injury too. If Costa picks up an injury Chelsea are back to last seasons form.

Position 1 is now.
position 2,3, and 6 are all starred champion winning teams. yes?
position 4 and 5 are unstarred.

total = 6 positions.
all have > 29 points.

3/6 = 1/2 "chance" of winning at >29 points after 12 games.
This actually covers the period 03/04 - 14/15
That's 12 seasons right?

You've had 12 chances to have >29 points at 12 games and have achieved this 6 times, winning from 3 of them.

Correct?
I'm not interpreting the table incorrectly. I'm stating, in top flight football (so you can discount the 2nd division years but include pre EPL (and then include teams like Liverpool and Forest and Derby and Villa), how does this 12 games >29 points stack up against other winners.

can we get back to talking about liverpool pls

Yes, they're shit, and things are going to get worse before they get better.

ahh thats better
thanks ronnie

enough of this chelsea doing well nonsense

No idea. Tell me Stato, tell me.

Bear in mind that the old Div 1 had more than 20 teams for most of its existence.

As did the Premier League for its first three years. This must have an impact upon the correlation between the position after 12 games and the final league position.

Another way of looking at it is that if we have a 50% chance of winning with 29 or more points after 12 games, we ought to have 100% chance of winning it with 30 or more points after 12 games...

But we know this is not the case.

And when Derby last one the League there were 2 points for a win which makes comparisons more difficult.

And you were in short trousers if, indeed, you had been born yet.

Chalfie, the list of previous seasons I posted shows that any team topping the table after 12 games since 08/09 who had 29 points or lower did not win the league. So it seems 30 points and above is a point above which likelihood of a win increases exponentially. This has applied to Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea. I don't have the time to mine the data any further but you can go to premierleague.com and check out the premier league tables for any date in the year going back to 92.

The point was not that Chelsea might win the league, it was that Liverpool are in a worse position than Chelsea have been in 20 years. If your point is Liverpool could make a come back from 14 points then you are perfectly suited to supporting Liverpool, although you will soon be entering the "Next year will be our year" phase.

So you can rest easy, we are not talking about Chelsea doing well, we're still talking about Liverpool. And how badly they are doing....

More stats for you Damo

9 of the bottom 10 PL teams are managed by British managers

7 of the top 10 PL teams are managed by foreign managers.

Bravo

In 1974/5 Derby won the League of 22 clubs with 53 points. With 3 points for a win this would have come to 74 points. W21-D11-L10 GF67 - GA49 - GD18

[I know goal average was used rather than goal difference but I am trying to make this easy for you]

In 1971/2 Derby won another 22 team league with 58 points which would today be 82 points

W24 - D10 - L8 - GF69 - GA33 - GD 36

2004/5 20 team League

Chelsea P38 W29 D8 L1 GF72 GA15 GD+57 Points 95*

2005/6 20 team League

Chelsea P38 W29 D4 L5 GF72 GA22 GD+50 Points 91

2009/10 20 team league

Chelsea P38 W27 D5 L6 GF103* GA32 GD+71 Points 86

*Records

So even in the lowest points scoring of these winning seasons, Chelsea, winning a 20 team league amassed more points than the venerable and historic Derby County in 22 team leagues. It also appears that Chelsea scored more goals in fewer games than Derby as well.

Would everyone please stop quoting stats at Damo, you know how over-excited he gets. There will be tears at bedtime.

TL:DR Chelsea are going to win the league this year. Yep we know, it's been obvious for weeks, if not months.

In 1974/5 Derby won the League of 22 clubs with 53 points. With 3 points for a win this would have come to 74 points. W21-D11-L10 GF67 - GA49 - GD18

[I know goal average was used rather than goal difference but I am trying to make this easy for you]

In 1971/2 Derby won another 22 team league with 58 points which would today be 82 points>

You can't just translate with 2 points into 3 points. With the extra incentive to win, they may well have won more (or even lost more).

You've gone too far Levy #kebabgate

Get... In...

We're beautiful to watch atm...

Sublime...

Great Suarez goal... Also, auf wiedersehn, Citeh...

I'm so bored with this season. Things aren't going to get any better until March when we get down to the nitty gritty of relegation and who is going to finish fourth. Meanwhile it's a snooze fest. I know hammers and saints fans will be enjoying themselves for a few more weeks at least and I suppose Chelsea fans are relishing the fact that their arrogant ways will actually have some justification once again but this is a poor season. Actually beginning to hope we get relegated so we can take part in the championship again and snap out of this malaise that has taken over the club.

This current cited match sums it all up. They can afford to lose tonight and they only have 2 points. I mean come on, what is the point of all these matches?

Cited are mediocre at best. A failure to lure any if the worlds best players over the last five years leaves them trying to get back into again with nasri and Milner.

And joe hart is shit