• T-V

    @uber_gruber do you think it is impossible for a socially progressive government to be elected in a United Kingdom?

    Gordon Brown just came out and said he'd rather a UKIP/Tory government than an Independent Scotland. Ed Milliband just said that a fairer society is 'fantasy'. Please tell me what political party in the UK offers a socially progressive government?

    It is highly likely Scotland will face economic headwinds if it votes for independence.

    No question. But even Cameron admits that Scotland has the resources and capability to be successful.

    Serious uncertainty over currency and EU membership will give rise to a flight of capital and a probable recession.

    Come the 19th I don't think there will be much uncertainty-rUK will want to protect the pound, and make all the right noises of co-operation. EU membership: there's not really much reason for a state, that's democratically seceded and already complies to EU law, from being excluded, is there?

    Add a brain drain (as there are undoubtedly people on the No side who will relocate to the rest of the UK),

    This really hits home for me. Scotland exports 30,000 young people every year, and 'brain drain' has being going on for centuries with mass emigration. The primary reason is London-centric economic policy and lack of job creation north of the border, combined with de-industrialisation.

    ...for high cost of borrowing for an infant state, a rump UK that will drive a very punishing bargain on the terms of independence, and intense competitive challenges from ongoing globalization. Scotland could be looking at a lost economic generation before any of the promises of independence can be achieved.

    It says a lot about how positively people feel about the current state of affairs that so many people are still prepared to take on these challenges and risks, doesn't it?

    In addition it will have a weak democracy, as there will be no effective opposition to the SNP.

    What the hell are you basing this preposterous statement on? If nothing else, the Scottish parliament operates on Proportional Representation in a system that favours cross-party coalition. Despite so many traditional Labour supporters backing independence, this isn't a general election, and post independence, if it happens, most will go back to voting for their local party leader (mine used to be Charles Kennedy, very popular and competent Lib Dem who sadly died last year). Personally, I'll be voting for Patrick Harvie of the Greens to form the core of a coalition government.

    How long will it take for a credible party of opposition to emerge? Without an established constitutional model and with no opposition to hold them to account, do you trust the SNP leadership to tackle the profound challenges of negotiating independence and accession to the EU, founding new state institutions, and guiding the economy in a period of intense uncertainty? A sad but very possible outcome is for Scotland to find itself in need of the Bretton Woods institutions and being force fed neo-liberal policies in return for the loans. Rupert Murdoch is cheer leading independence because he's a cold businessman seeking advantage for News Corp; revenge on the 'establishment' is merely the cherry on the cake.

    As entertaining as this hypothesis is, Salmond has already invited Darling, Brown, and others to form a committee for drafting a new constitution and assisting with the task of making these new institutions. The rest of your statement is laughable, we already have a democratically elected and accountable parliament and a wealth of experienced diplomats, financial and political experts to rely on.

    Many in Britain are dissatisfied with the status quo. If there was some magic button we could press to change it, we would. A rational analysis suggests a vote for independence is not that button. Hope needs to be measured against reality. We have a better chance of forging a socially just Britain together than either nation does if it goes alone.

    If you call your post a 'rational analysis' then that's your opinion. I find little in it of much substance and your reality is very different to mine as someone who has grown up very conscious of the inherent limitations of living in Scotland as it is now.

  • EU membership: there's not really much reason for a state, that's democratically seceded and already complies to EU law, from being excluded, is there?

    Orly?

    European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso expressed the view early this year that Scotland would be automatically excluded on becoming independent and would find readmission to the 28-member bloc "extremely difficult, if not impossible".

    Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/14/uk-scotland-independence-eu-insight-idUKKBN0H90DT20140914

    Scotland will have to apply for membership, which requires unanimity. Do you think Spain, Belgium or Italy will give a second thought to saying no? In addition, new applicants now have to join the Euro as a condition of membership. Will Scotland do that?

  • T-V in reply to @uber_gruber

    EU membership: there's not really much reason for a state, that's democratically seceded and already complies to EU law, from being excluded, is there?
    

    Orly?

    European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso expressed the view early this year that Scotland would be automatically excluded on becoming independent and would find readmission to the 28-member bloc "extremely difficult, if not impossible".
    

    Source: uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/14­/uk-scotland-independence-eu-insight-idU­KKBN0H90DT20140914

    Scotland will have to apply for membership, which requires unanimity. Do you think Spain, Belgium or Italy will give a second thought to saying no? In addition, new applicants now have to join the Euro as a condition of membership. Will Scotland do that?

    Really? This was addressed in February-Baroso (as a Spaniard) was making his comments on a personal capacity, but don't let that get in the way of the lazy sensationalism. http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/8752-barroso-backtracks-on-kosovo-comments-as-pressure-builds-on-ec-president
    or from the Scotsman:

    But Mr Currie said: “I think he was unwise to express the opinion he expressed in terms of the virtual impossibility of Scotland becoming a member state of the EU.

    “I think that was extremely unwise.

    “I don’t think he was correct and I don’t necessarily think that opinion is shared either among all the member states or even necessarily within the Commission.”

    Mr Currie said it was unclear whether Mr Barroso was speaking on behalf of the Commission or as an “outgoing President” of the Commission.

    Mr Barroso compared Scotland’s situation with Kosovo, but Mr Currie said a more appropriate parallel would be German unification where the political situation required a degree of pragmatism. In the event, East Germany was incorporated into the EU in a matter of months “Kosovo was an unfortunate example,” he said.

    “Scotland already has been applying the highest principles of democracy and human rights.”

    He added: “We would be talking about a territory which is currently part of a full member state. We’re dealing with people who would have certain rights as EU citizens and which would be very difficult to take away, and nobody would want to.

    “The bottom line for me is that it would be dealt with in a pragmatic way, and it would involve inevitable negotiations which would be rather tough.”

    Apart from that, Scotland also has 60% of the EU's natural resources, and at a time when Russia is going psychotic on its neighbours, do you think that fears over Catalan seperatism will outweigh having a stable oil producing nation in the heart of the EU?

    http://news.sky.com/story/1250880/scotland-is-lynchpin-of-eu-energy-security

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