• This is from Faster, because I happen to have it on the kindle app on my phone.. You can read the Epstein book for more info or do your own reading...

    One study from 2008 set out to look at 23 polymorphisms known to be beneficial to endurance sport, and how frequently they occurred. Most of them were relatively rare. The researchers calculated the probability of any individual possessing all of them. So for the ACE gene, the probability was 21%. For the next gene on the list (ACTN3, which encodes a protein found in muscle fibres and has a role in determining muscle fibre type), the probability of the ‘right’ polymorphism was 18%. At this point, just two polymorphisms in, the cumulative probability of someone having both of them is 4%. When you keep on adding more sporting polymorphisms, you eventually find that the probability of the ‘perfect’ athlete, based on these 23 variances, is one in 1,212 trillion. There is a one in 200,000 chance that anyone in the world possesses the perfect set. Even if you settle for 21 of the 23, the odds for a single worldwide occurrence are only one in ten. In the UK, you might find a handful of people with 12 of the 23, but it’s very unlikely you’d find anyone with 13. There is also a very good chance that more than the 23 polymorphisms studied are actually involved. So you can add a few more zeroes across the board. All that is before you start contemplating the odds of one of these rare flowers actually taking up the right sport, enjoying it, and being supported into building a career in it. No one knows just how many of these polymorphisms the current top athletes have, but it’s almost certainly relatively small. The question the study didn’t answer is the one that most athletes would find themselves turning over in their minds in the small hours of the morning. Given just how gifted some riders clearly are, just how good would this one in 1,212 trillion athlete be? It’s the kind of question guaranteed to keep you in a state of anxious wakefulness. It’s almost impossible to answer it in a meaningful way, because the quantitative contribution of each of the polymorphisms is as yet unknown. That didn’t stop me asking one of the authors of the study, Dr Alun Williams of Manchester Metropolitan University. 24 ‘They’d be off the scale,’ he said. ‘They would be unbelievably good.’ I asked if ‘unbelievably good’ would extend to my own personal nightmare, the athlete so gifted that they need never train, someone who could be a world beater after preparation not significantly more taxing than setting down their cigar and climbing aboard their bicycle? ‘I would think so, yes,’ said Williams. ‘They probably couldn’t get off with actually staying in bed all day, but I would think they could manage without specialist training.’

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