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@Greenbank
As wall clock time goes he lost just under 5 hours at CP3 (that was the elapsed time from passing the junction where he should have turned left to the time he got back to that same junction and continued on round the bay).
Whether not doing the extra riding (~50km and 900m+ climbing) would have allowed him to shave off another 5 hours is a much harder question to answer. He may have pushed harder at the end knowing that he was still in a chance of beating his previous time had he not fucked up.