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  • So if I forgot the story the host told me, my chances are 1/2 because I don't know that they once were 1/3?
    That's what I was getting at with the quote below.

    ...Although, if you don't swap you are still choosing to pick door 1 with a known 1 in 2 chance of being it being a car...
    If you don't change doors then you are still picking door 1 *when there is a known 1 in 2 chance of it being right. *Because you are now simply picking between 2 doors....

    No, wait. The host is always going to open an incorrect door. This changes things. I think. Ok, I think I just got it when trying to justify myself.

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